IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1baa5763fc4ca1fa5b32a9ad451f7c3b7f34593535114099172b819554629a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x416e…6fccbacked Yes | 1c | 8,563$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 1c | 7,791$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,393$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,750$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66d…6f62backed Yes | 3c | 6,200$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 5c | 6,013$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Yes | 16c | 5,999$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…85aabacked Yes | 3c | 5,943$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333a…bd76backed Yes | 0c | 3,606$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…b3a8backed Yes | 10c | 2,579$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,132$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…b57cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,089$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,989$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 6c | 1,850$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…7dcbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,538$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,403$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebeb…4966backed Yes | 10c | 1,301$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…1524backed Yes | 8c | 1,184$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 3c | 1,154$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…cedabacked Yes | 10c | 1,021$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,010$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…e3c6backed Yes | 1c | 977.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked Yes | 1c | 932.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 6c | 886.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 5c | 795.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…230abacked Yes | 2c | 605.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b9…d898backed Yes | 6c | 573.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 558.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 499.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes | 5c | 460.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 8c | 439.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74a5…6c66backed Yes | 8c | 342.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 7c | 300.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 9c | 260.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 258.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…55e9backed Yes | 5c | 245$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…cc4fbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…d964backed Yes | 10c | 198.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…2b86backed Yes | 10c | 196.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…3e02backed Yes | 11c | 186.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 6c | 170.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc105…4e6fbacked Yes | 13c | 154.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…c463backed Yes | 8c | 124.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 79c | 95.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 79c | 17.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?this page
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.