IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x278c6c35598893868d1fa55db469b5fc3964c59ab333f49f57210b9bfb72f8d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $420,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $349,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 370 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed Yes | 7c | 94,956$6,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,645.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 36c | 24,593$8,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,752.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 23c | 14,147$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked No | 79c | 8,629$6,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 8,586$6,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 15c | 8,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.99 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 7,512$5,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.67 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 32c | 7,373$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 25c | 6,933$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…ec2fbacked Yes | 44c | 5,548$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,434.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x783d…9a35backed Yes | 34c | 5,332$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 65c | 5,244$3,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 14c | 4,982$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.82 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Yes | 42c | 4,221$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…b57cbacked Yes | 17c | 4,097$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 12c | 4,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed Yes | 19c | 3,752$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 24c | 3,665$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 3,354$2,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.07 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3f…f07bbacked Yes | 33c | 3,279$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…fdf7backed Yes | 15c | 2,902$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 2,747$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.28 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 2,654$1,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.71 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 14c | 2,605$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…ed66backed Yes | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…30eebacked Yes | 18c | 2,404$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 15c | 2,382$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 2,269$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa424…752abacked Yes | 14c | 2,196$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…0e00backed No | 64c | 2,101$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 41c | 2,100$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 76c | 2,062$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 59c | 2,046$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.46 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,972$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…eebabacked Yes | 50c | 1,924$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf41…6bd1backed Yes | 39c | 1,871$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…ea7ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,750$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 1,735$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,727$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…2dadbacked No | 70c | 1,625$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 44c | 1,625$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Yes | 43c | 1,453$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 1,420$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.79 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed Yes | 40c | 1,392$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 57c | 1,388$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,351$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 79c | 1,307$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 1,269$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 1,236$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.07 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 61c | 1,205$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.15 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,199$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…5822backed Yes | 21c | 1,190$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 1,157$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.67 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 1,109$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.88 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,068$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 23c | 1,048$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.12 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda8…7f1dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x045a…26b5backed Yes | 15c | 982.18$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…d8c6backed Yes | 27c | 935.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da1…7de9backed Yes | 24c | 927.78$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 21c | 926.01$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.87 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…2ea2backed Yes | 32c | 907.18$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 800$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 777.51$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…6f8dbacked Yes | 15c | 777.49$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 37c | 774.15$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…6b77backed Yes | 39c | 761.42$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…6fe2backed Yes | 7c | 728.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked No | 66c | 713$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…aedcbacked Yes | 31c | 668.47$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…f309backed Yes | 28c | 666.67$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 45c | 663.51$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked Yes | 38c | 643.48$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 68c | 611.92$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 80c | 570$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 19c | 553.79$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3588…302fbacked Yes | 15c | 550$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 515$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.85 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…169fbacked Yes | 41c | 505.56$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 11c | 502.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…849ebacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4a…dff7backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…c02ebacked Yes | 22c | 494.09$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…d0c6backed Yes | 21c | 484.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 31c | 472.01$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.61 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…fce1backed Yes | 43c | 465.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 33c | 460.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…43b9backed Yes | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 442.84$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…8460backed Yes | 16c | 435.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 419.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…ab82backed Yes | 18c | 417.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 62c | 416.85$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…690dbacked Yes | 13c | 413.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…e73dbacked Yes | 39c | 412$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…31d6backed Yes | 34c | 399.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 28c | 399.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?this page
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.