IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aea6fe12da230778165420f1b76f2b01246f9447c2f4bbc098ecc9d17860611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e04…12b1backed Yes | 2c | 20,084$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…07c0backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…b57cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,777$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 2c | 8,096$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 6,913$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,546$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,755$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 1c | 4,679$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…1b86backed Yes | 1c | 2,840$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,247$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…432fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,953$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +71%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,895$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…b572backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,058$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…968cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 798.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?this page
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.