TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0330…eb8f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
287
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 60 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT5729.8%17 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.2
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$129.5
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+319.7%+$152.27
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$586Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$214
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.79
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.26
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$94
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,951Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,950.67
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+82.7%+$269.74
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.88
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$707Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$707.39
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+127.3%+$22.4
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$31.2
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$63
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+26.6%+$21
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$29.97
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$14.29
Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+59.1%+$55.78
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$280
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+1,541.7%+$1,068.18
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$814Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$814
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$330.6
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$255.46
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.99
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$214
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.67
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.27
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$93
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$475.31
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.65
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$4,011Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,010.92
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+289.6%+$445.99
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$78.6
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.82
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$614Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$613.8
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$20.18
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.43
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$39.83
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+37%+$27
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,171Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+297.6%+$6,459.78
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT3756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,024Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,023.79
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$34.4
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$157.4
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.64
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+136.5%+$146.79
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$517Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$516.99
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.95
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+237.2%+$263.64
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$30.2
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$106.7
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+56.9%+$43.5
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+57.5%+$21.9
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$643Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+58.8%+$378.25
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$18
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$17.6
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+94.6%+$24.3
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5
Will Russia enter Bilytske by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$6.6
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+70.6%+$20.7
Will Zelenskyy meet with Netanyahu in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.45
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$166.36
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+257.1%+$57.6
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT2433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.53
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.64
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.6
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$17.64
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$16.85
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$40.5
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$229.1
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$163.74
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+62.6%+$15.4
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+58%+$238.6
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+32.9%+$227.19
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+141.2%+$64.4
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$69.25
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$38.76
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$743Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$743.29
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10.61
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+56.3%+$7.2
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+36.1%+$10.6
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+180.4%+$19.3
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+154.2%+$18.2
Grokipedia released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.13
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.2
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.8
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+368%+$281.8
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,478Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+72.4%+$1,793.18
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$30
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.42
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Piers Morgan be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$24.2
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$27.56
Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$20.38
Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$36.4
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+94.2%+$9.7
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+43.5%+$9.1
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+84.1%+$86.81
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$28
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$9.6
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
All 22 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+44.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Commodities — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.72
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.9
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+49%+$52.6
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+308%+$236.6
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+106.9%+$77.49
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$880
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$40.4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$75.59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$19.6
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+183%+$71.13
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+123.5%+$88.4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.05
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$9.82
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+109.2%+$109.59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$30.5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
All 21 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.38
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.89
Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.08
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% or higher?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 15–20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$12.7
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$16.29
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$14.12
Zohran Mamdani Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+70.4%+$13
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+74.4%+$38.31
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+53.8%+$11.28
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+138.1%+$40.6
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-45.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.45
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+96.5%+$98.2
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$13.72
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$70.2
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,248Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+59.6%+$743.17
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$16.02
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$9.6
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.57
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.07
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$16.48
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$84.31
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$142.98
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+339.6%+$216.3
Will Max Verstappen finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$31.67
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$36
All 8 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick29cpaid+255%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.4
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$405
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+81.6%+$85.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$33.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.