Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe443dab97ad8b7f58558cc7a6a3932d156031e962a451e0461e9a4578d78fe84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,714,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,331,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,714,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,530 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa253…c48fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,007,771$259,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259,940.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,689,785$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.81 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…21cbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,285,298$71,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,076.82 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 2,080,543$17,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,187.24 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…b824backed Yes | 15c | 2,075,013$308,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308,012.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 6c | 1,396,462$84,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,984.28 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…5b36backed Yes | 1c | 600,000$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,729.89 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…46a0backed Yes | 13c | 590,076$78,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,879.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 2c | 547,099$8,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,937.69 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 8c | 496,201$41,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,313.81 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 0c | 460,323$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58df…b4adbacked Yes | 2c | 395,986$9,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,267.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +450.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 6c | 392,580$23,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,602.71 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 6c | 365,560$21,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,990.94 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 2c | 360,890$6,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,375 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…433abacked Yes | 4c | 353,492$14,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,336.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd515…8b25backed Yes | 0c | 332,632$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b7…50c3backed Yes | 2c | 325,263$7,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,301.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…16dabacked Yes | 0c | 305,885$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…2ee7backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes | 20c | 300,000$60,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,000 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a8…5204backed Yes | 8c | 293,454$24,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 0c | 246,500$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 229,349$11,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,663.13 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07f…7f58backed Yes | 8c | 214,319$17,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,400.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes | 2c | 212,665$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,171.47 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…0d8bbacked Yes | 1c | 188,317$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b76…94fdbacked Yes | 1c | 175,594$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…d050backed Yes | 12c | 156,816$19,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,328.72 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 1c | 153,455$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.15 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 3c | 142,346$3,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,847.88 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…8652backed Yes | 11c | 141,359$14,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,967.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 1c | 138,953$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.72 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…5764backed Yes | 4c | 130,559$4,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,821.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 18cpaid | +337.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…d168backed Yes | 1c | 112,204$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 3c | 110,228$3,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,397.38 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 1c | 108,058$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.65 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 4c | 106,848$4,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,676 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…2e3ebacked Yes | 4c | 100,783$3,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,797.98 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 1c | 99,030$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.11 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes | 1c | 91,008$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +616.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129e…d9e1backed Yes | 16c | 86,672$14,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 5c | 86,330$3,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,996.59 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 86,300$4,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,949.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e7…bc03backed Yes | 4c | 86,088$3,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,164.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…9b69backed Yes | 0c | 82,728$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d9…2851backed Yes | 1c | 82,029$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba45…87f3backed Yes | 1c | 80,863$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 17c | 80,068$13,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,744.22 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…7674backed No | 79c | 78,548$62,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,381.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…d010backed Yes | 2c | 76,375$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 13cpaid | +425%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…a3f7backed Yes | 14c | 75,000$10,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,348.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Yes | 15c | 70,261$10,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,356.75 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…647abacked Yes | 1c | 68,698$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.19 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 64,444$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.69 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…d063backed Yes | 1c | 62,224$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340a…ed26backed Yes | 1c | 61,302$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…040bbacked Yes | 3c | 60,282$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 5c | 60,067$2,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,807.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94b…d221backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 15c | 56,756$8,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,396.03 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…e5aebacked Yes | 10c | 54,979$5,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,305.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…89bbbacked Yes | 11c | 53,513$6,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,126.43 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 53,190$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.33 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes | 16c | 52,630$8,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,310.26 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…7edbbacked Yes | 7c | 52,601$3,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,859.57 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…50c8backed Yes | 2c | 52,100$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.4 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed Yes | 6c | 51,957$2,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,878.27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 5c | 49,296$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff8…e9a2backed Yes | 0c | 47,246$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…ec50backed Yes | 15c | 47,048$7,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,057.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…58c3backed Yes | 1c | 45,295$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed Yes | 7c | 44,366$3,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,308.11 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…3438backed Yes | 7c | 42,000$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,873.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…f6b3backed Yes | 4c | 41,774$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 2c | 41,175$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.04 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2202…8787backed Yes | 9c | 40,856$3,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,677.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Yes | 14c | 40,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 1c | 40,000$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.05 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes | 23c | 38,326$8,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,634.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 75c | 37,409$28,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,352.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…3f31backed Yes | 14c | 36,076$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,040 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 12c | 35,498$4,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,179.74 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 1c | 35,368$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Yes | 1c | 33,853$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…d132backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707d…ddbbbacked Yes | 3c | 32,666$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +2,437.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 31,862$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.03 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 5c | 31,565$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.71 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 31,099$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.28 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 3c | 30,303$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6f35backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…43c8backed Yes | 23c | 28,580$6,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,496.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe491…b4d7backed Yes | 3c | 28,285$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 12c | 27,872$3,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,361.71 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 1c | 27,855$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…7211backed Yes | 3c | 27,343$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.41 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 4c | 27,000$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +447.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…9333backed Yes | 8c | 26,579$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.