TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,714,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,331,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,714,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,530 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa253…c48fbacked Yes6c4,007,771$259,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259,940.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Yes0c2,689,785$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.811816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x485a…21cbbacked Yes3c2,285,298$71,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,076.82147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-87.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes1c2,080,543$17,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,187.2410417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa7d1…b824backed Yes15c2,075,013$308,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308,012.280%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes6c1,396,462$84,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,984.2812650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x547b…5b36backed Yes1c600,000$3,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,729.8970%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1caa…46a0backed Yes13c590,076$78,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,879.061030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+52.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29ea…701ebacked Yes2c547,099$8,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,937.69392.6%1 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick9cpaid-92.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes0c500,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2002326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes8c496,201$41,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,313.812218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes0c460,323$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3501816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+149.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58df…b4adbacked Yes2c395,986$9,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,267.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+450.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes6c392,580$23,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,602.712850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+79.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes6c365,560$21,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,990.946013.3%8 W · 52 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed Yes2c360,890$6,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3752512%3 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+405.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fba…433abacked Yes4c353,492$14,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,336.311428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+52.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd515…8b25backed Yes0c332,632$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b7…50c3backed Yes2c325,263$7,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,301.86742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid-18.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97c9…16dabacked Yes0c305,885$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558e…2ee7backed Yes0c300,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes20c300,000$60,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,0001216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a8…5204backed Yes8c293,454$24,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,500540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x152f…a549backed Yes0c246,500$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9862330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c229,349$11,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,663.1342120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc07f…7f58backed Yes8c214,319$17,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,400.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes2c212,665$4,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,171.473537.1%13 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-25.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c7a…0d8bbacked Yes1c188,317$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.69728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick7cpaid+177.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b76…94fdbacked Yes1c175,594$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.16450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+137.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c27…d050backed Yes12c156,816$19,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,328.723033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked Yes1c153,455$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.155712.3%7 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes3c142,346$3,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,847.889222.8%21 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5172…8652backed Yes11c141,359$14,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,967.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes1c138,953$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.7212037.5%45 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…5764backed Yes4c130,559$4,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,821.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick18cpaid+337.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e5b…d168backed Yes1c112,204$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes3c110,228$3,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,397.3826429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes1c108,058$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.651146.1%7 W · 107 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes4c106,848$4,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,676400%0 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f4e…2e3ebacked Yes4c100,783$3,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,797.98128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-87%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes1c99,030$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.118933.7%30 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+47.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes1c91,008$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.23425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick2cpaid+616.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x129e…d9e1backed Yes16c86,672$14,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,200728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+48.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes5c86,330$3,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,996.593240.6%13 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.20per pick21cpaid+100.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes6c86,300$4,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.082441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+60.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5e7…bc03backed Yes4c86,088$3,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,164.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde32…9b69backed Yes0c82,728$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d9…2851backed Yes1c82,029$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba45…87f3backed Yes1c80,863$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes17c80,068$13,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,744.227838.5%30 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a7…7674backed No79c78,548$62,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,381.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+46.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4eb…d010backed Yes2c76,375$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.11666.7%4 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.53per pick13cpaid+425%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5923…a3f7backed Yes14c75,000$10,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,348.821338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Yes15c70,261$10,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,356.753033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2baa…647abacked Yes1c68,698$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.191926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+148.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c64,444$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.6921831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f4…d063backed Yes1c62,224$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x340a…ed26backed Yes1c61,302$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9608…040bbacked Yes3c60,282$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8d…01debacked Yes5c60,067$2,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,807.4180%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa94b…d221backed Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes15c56,756$8,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,396.0311527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ed8…e5aebacked Yes10c54,979$5,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,305.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…89bbbacked Yes11c53,513$6,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,126.436633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c53,190$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.3351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes16c52,630$8,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,310.262429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec6…7edbbacked Yes7c52,601$3,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,859.576141%25 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…50c8backed Yes2c52,100$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.42317.4%4 W · 19 L-5.2wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-68.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed Yes6c51,957$2,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,878.272944.8%13 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes5c49,296$2,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.311741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff8…e9a2backed Yes0c47,246$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c07…ec50backed Yes15c47,048$7,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,057.241241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b0…58c3backed Yes1c45,295$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffea…06c0backed Yes7c44,366$3,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,308.117042.9%30 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed Yes7c42,000$2,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,873.63520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0117…f6b3backed Yes4c41,774$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes2c41,175$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.04333%1 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-82.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2202…8787backed Yes9c40,856$3,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,677.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Yes14c40,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes1c40,000$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.0510528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes23c38,326$8,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,634.6350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e2…6e12backed No75c37,409$28,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,352.221560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…3f31backed Yes14c36,076$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0403522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes12c35,498$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,179.745827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes1c35,368$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41714227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked Yes1c33,853$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f4…d132backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707d…ddbbbacked Yes3c32,666$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+2,437.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes2c31,862$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.034219%8 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes5c31,565$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.7128750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c31,099$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.283717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes3c30,303$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003315.2%5 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd20…6f35backed Yes2c30,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Yes23c28,580$6,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,496.261942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe491…b4d7backed Yes3c28,285$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e1f…7828backed Yes12c27,872$3,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,361.713724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+76.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a58…dd44backed Yes1c27,855$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.14424.8%2 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+137.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes3c27,343$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.414814.6%7 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6732…d7f0backed Yes4c27,000$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.212450%12 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+447.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe516…9333backed Yes8c26,579$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.45837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick18cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.