TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x06d0…254f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Commodities, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST4161%25 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$17,899.91
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,296Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,295.97
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico backed Pico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.99
UFC 319: Neal vs. Prates backed Prates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$320
UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page backed Page · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$185
UFC 319: Elliott vs. Asakurabacked Asakura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandezbacked Hernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$182
UFC Fight Night: Fili vs. Rodriguezbacked Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,008Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,008
UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. Matsumotobacked Matsumoto · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$141.8
UFC Fight Night: Park vs. Tairabacked Taira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$740Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$260
UFC Fight Night: Rębecki vs. Duncan backed Rębecki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Vallejosbacked Vallejos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$220
UFC Fight Night: Nakamura vs. Fletcherbacked Nakamura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,540Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$460
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Gore backed Gore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$339.99
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridderbacked de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$943Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+143.4%+$1,352.11
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGheebacked Yan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$167.35
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$5,973Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+81.9%+$4,892.65
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylovbacked Kopylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,444Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,443.58
UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull backed Ige · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
UFC 318: Johnson vs. Zellhuberbacked Johnson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+433.8%+$1,285.58
UFC 318: Phillips vs. Oliveirabacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$430
UFC 318: Vettori vs. Allen backed Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,527Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+55.4%+$845.4
UFC 318: Prado vs. Veretennikovbacked Veretennikov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$333.54
UFC 318: Gautier vs. Valentinbacked Valentin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
UFC 318: Spann vs. Brzeskibacked Spann · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$100.3
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10,357Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,356.75
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,596Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+113%+$1,803.98
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$3,821Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+387.7%+$14,813.17
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$1,325.58
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,900Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+43.5%+$827.07
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$464
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,700
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,540Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,540
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19,831Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19,831.28
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,052Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$717.12
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$285.85
Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 20,000 by March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.82
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$324.63
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$330
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12,393Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+46%+$5,699.41
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,200
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,300Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+30.5%+$396.26
Israel strikes Iran before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Israel strikes Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,400
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+25%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,000
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.