UFC · resolved market
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41950d97662d059890eb10578ef90bf9e1d142f505f0cfa941d5b0e534dc2e1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hollowayof Holloway, Poirier
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,774,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,795,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,774,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 680 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fdb…7ea3backed Poirier | 45c | 259,276$116,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116,595.62 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Holloway | 55c | 208,367$115,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93,059.03 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Poirier | 46c | 204,272$94,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94,699.32 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Holloway | 54c | 168,182$90,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77,242 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Holloway | 54c | 96,150$51,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,627.77 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…34b6backed Poirier | 46c | 87,000$39,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,849.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Holloway | 56c | 82,743$46,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,432.82 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked Holloway | 54c | 74,067$39,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,070.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d1…546bbacked Holloway | 56c | 62,459$34,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,485.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Poirier | 41c | 61,775$25,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,515.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…ad45backed Poirier | 44c | 50,000$22,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,044 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Holloway | 56c | 50,000$28,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Holloway | 54c | 46,143$24,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,218.3 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Poirier | 44c | 45,000$19,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,950 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…b8c8backed Poirier | 46c | 42,891$19,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,729.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1057…9ea5backed Holloway | 54c | 38,910$21,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,898.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Poirier | 42c | 38,080$15,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,822.19 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Holloway | 54c | 35,507$19,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,388.29 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed Holloway | 55c | 34,788$19,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,654.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…6ff1backed Poirier | 45c | 34,518$15,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,533.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Holloway | 54c | 32,427$17,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,772.18 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Poirier | 37c | 32,157$11,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,951.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…fff3backed Poirier | 23c | 26,714$6,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,188.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Poirier | 32c | 21,663$6,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,834.37 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Holloway | 57c | 20,989$11,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,025.18 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…e646backed Poirier | 46c | 19,857$9,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,134.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Poirier | 20c | 18,905$3,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,833.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Poirier | 44c | 17,385$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,649.51 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Poirier | 46c | 15,980$7,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,349.32 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…3383backed Poirier | 46c | 13,763$6,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,330.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Holloway | 52c | 13,625$7,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,489.82 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Poirier | 45c | 13,380$6,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,021.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…995fbacked Holloway | 55c | 11,818$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,318.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Holloway | 54c | 11,300$6,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,198 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Holloway | 75c | 11,097$8,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,791.93 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Holloway | 55c | 10,865$5,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,892.65 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7160…f574backed Holloway | 56c | 10,764$6,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,736.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d6…d716backed Holloway | 54c | 10,681$5,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,913.46 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…40adbacked Holloway | 55c | 10,470$5,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,711.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Holloway | 55c | 10,133$5,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,559.71 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Holloway | 53c | 10,002$5,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,657.68 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Holloway | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500.24 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Holloway | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Holloway | 54c | 9,999$5,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,649.7 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed Holloway | 56c | 9,323$5,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,112.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…a620backed Holloway | 56c | 8,915$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,915.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Poirier | 36c | 8,881$3,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.12 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Poirier | 31c | 8,679$2,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,647.68 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Poirier | 46c | 8,418$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,872.26 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Holloway | 55c | 8,385$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,784.64 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Holloway | 55c | 8,000$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.78 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Holloway | 55c | 7,998$4,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,619.08 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Holloway | 68c | 7,888$5,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,523.94 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Poirier | 31c | 7,579$2,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,364.95 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Holloway | 73c | 7,552$5,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010.05 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Poirier | 22c | 7,372$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.49 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Holloway | 55c | 7,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.95 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Holloway | 55c | 6,958$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,133.51 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +97%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0930…0d60backed Poirier | 45c | 6,800$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Poirier | 45c | 6,708$3,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,033.6 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…f52cbacked Holloway | 54c | 6,481$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,981.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Holloway | 72c | 6,100$4,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Poirier | 46c | 5,580$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.8 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Holloway | 54c | 5,550$3,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,541.98 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d8…012abacked Poirier | 46c | 5,435$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Poirier | 26c | 5,391$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.3 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267f…2fa5backed Poirier | 46c | 5,327$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Holloway | 54c | 4,931$2,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.34 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Poirier | 34c | 4,873$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…fa1dbacked Holloway | 56c | 4,654$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Poirier | 33c | 4,504$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…1cd1backed Poirier | 46c | 4,304$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…2870backed Poirier | 33c | 4,297$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Holloway | 71c | 4,190$2,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.2 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Holloway | 76c | 4,042$3,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.4 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…bb91backed Poirier | 46c | 4,029$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…b212backed Holloway | 55c | 4,000$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.01 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…fb53backed Holloway | 55c | 3,953$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,778.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed Holloway | 69c | 3,900$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.07 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Poirier | 44c | 3,875$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.12 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Poirier | 46c | 3,825$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Holloway | 53c | 3,575$1,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.24 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Holloway | 54c | 3,574$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.09 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…d303backed Holloway | 56c | 3,500$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3a…6b0dbacked Poirier | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…ee46backed Poirier | 46c | 3,427$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.93 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Poirier | 35c | 3,399$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.53 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6505…8246backed Poirier | 45c | 3,273$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…2e1abacked Holloway | 56c | 3,125$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…3418backed Poirier | 47c | 3,085$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Poirier | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Holloway | 55c | 3,000$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…96aebacked Poirier | 47c | 2,975$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a346backed Poirier | 47c | 2,826$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Poirier | 1c | 2,805$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Poirier | 47c | 2,781$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Holloway | 54c | 2,700$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.99 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Poirier | 27c | 2,678$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.05 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Holloway | 59c | 2,658$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.17 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Poirier | 46c | 2,537$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.01 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierthis page
- UFC 318: Costa vs. KopylovCosta won
- UFC 318: Crute vs. PrachnioCrute won
- UFC 318: Ferreira vs. McVeyFerreira won
- UFC 318: Fugitt vs. DulatovDulatov won
- UFC 318: Gautier vs. ValentinGautier won
- UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez Rodriguez won
- UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull Pitbull won
- UFC 318: Johnson vs. ZellhuberJohnson won
- UFC 318: Judice vs. CaliariJudice won
- UFC 318: Phillips vs. OliveiraOliveira won
- UFC 318: Prado vs. VeretennikovVeretennikov won
- UFC 318: Spann vs. BrzeskiSpann won
- UFC 318: Vettori vs. Allen Allen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.