TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hollowayof Holloway, Poirier
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,774,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,795,387

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,774,910 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 680 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6fdb…7ea3backed Poirier45c259,276$116,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116,595.621936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Holloway55c208,367$115,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,059.0322259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Poirier46c204,272$94,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,699.3213039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61bf…647ebacked Holloway54c168,182$90,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,2421090%9 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick62cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Holloway54c96,150$51,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,627.7735253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Poirier46c87,000$39,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,849.921637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Holloway56c82,743$46,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,432.824744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc443…f19fbacked Holloway54c74,067$39,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,070.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d1…546bbacked Holloway56c62,459$34,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,485.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Poirier41c61,775$25,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,515.22343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Poirier44c50,000$22,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,0441060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+82.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Holloway56c50,000$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,00016951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Holloway54c46,143$24,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,218.314857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Poirier44c45,000$19,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,9503943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b76…b8c8backed Poirier46c42,891$19,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,729.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1057…9ea5backed Holloway54c38,910$21,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,898.82875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Poirier42c38,080$15,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,822.197841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Holloway54c35,507$19,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,388.2916049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9804…6896backed Holloway55c34,788$19,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,654.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5edb…6ff1backed Poirier45c34,518$15,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,533.131435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Holloway54c32,427$17,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,772.183043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Poirier37c32,157$11,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,951.971241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x740e…fff3backed Poirier23c26,714$6,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,188.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Poirier32c21,663$6,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,834.3710443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Holloway57c20,989$11,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,025.181675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Poirier46c19,857$9,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,134.281435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Poirier20c18,905$3,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,833.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Poirier44c17,385$7,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,649.517853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Poirier46c15,980$7,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,349.324151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…3383backed Poirier46c13,763$6,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,330.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Holloway52c13,625$7,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,489.823259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Poirier45c13,380$6,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,021.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5a…995fbacked Holloway55c11,818$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,318.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Holloway54c11,300$6,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1981637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Holloway75c11,097$8,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,791.932924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-60.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Holloway55c10,865$5,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,892.654161%25 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7160…f574backed Holloway56c10,764$6,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,736.79580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Holloway54c10,681$5,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,913.462751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f6c…40adbacked Holloway55c10,470$5,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,711.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Holloway55c10,133$5,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,559.711855.6%10 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Holloway53c10,002$5,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,657.6811140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Holloway55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,500.247653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Holloway55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5001850%9 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Holloway54c9,999$5,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,649.713453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Holloway56c9,323$5,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,112.771040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Holloway56c8,915$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,915.44425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Poirier36c8,881$3,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.1223537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Poirier31c8,679$2,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,647.6814530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Poirier46c8,418$3,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,872.263938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Holloway55c8,385$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,784.646645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Holloway55c8,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.786050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Holloway55c7,998$4,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,619.087233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Holloway68c7,888$5,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.9436745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Poirier31c7,579$2,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,364.9553956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Holloway73c7,552$5,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010.053751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Poirier22c7,372$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.4918145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Holloway55c7,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.953161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Holloway55c6,958$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,133.511478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.8wins+0.34per pick44cpaid+97%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0930…0d60backed Poirier45c6,800$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.9740%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Poirier45c6,708$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,033.610041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Holloway54c6,481$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,981.461457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Holloway72c6,100$4,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7066746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Poirier46c5,580$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,566.88826.1%23 W · 65 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Holloway54c5,550$3,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,541.981758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d8…012abacked Poirier46c5,435$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5003745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Poirier26c5,391$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.38544.7%38 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x267f…2fa5backed Poirier46c5,327$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Holloway54c4,931$2,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,268.345040%20 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked Poirier34c4,873$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6801172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+123.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86e9…fa1dbacked Holloway56c4,654$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed Poirier33c4,504$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+57.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x058b…1cd1backed Poirier46c4,304$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.96933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-49.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xafd4…2870backed Poirier33c4,297$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Holloway71c4,190$2,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.23655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Holloway76c4,042$3,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.412055.8%67 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65e6…bb91backed Poirier46c4,029$1,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,853.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8082…b212backed Holloway55c4,000$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.011070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8885…fb53backed Holloway55c3,953$2,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.73650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed Holloway69c3,900$2,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.071513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-67.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Poirier44c3,875$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.1214929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x283d…0dadbacked Poirier46c3,825$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.5840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Holloway53c3,575$1,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.243066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Holloway54c3,574$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.094934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c0…d303backed Holloway56c3,500$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c3a…6b0dbacked Poirier45c3,500$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Poirier46c3,427$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.9310650.9%54 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Poirier35c3,399$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.533342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6505…8246backed Poirier45c3,273$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd48…2e1abacked Holloway56c3,125$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d41…3418backed Poirier47c3,085$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Poirier46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3803250%16 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Holloway55c3,000$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36039959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc847…96aebacked Poirier47c2,975$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a346backed Poirier47c2,826$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.041844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Poirier1c2,805$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4914045.7%64 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Poirier47c2,781$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30712134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Holloway54c2,700$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.9913735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Poirier27c2,678$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.0528043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Holloway59c2,658$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.1721554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Poirier46c2,537$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.0120249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.