TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rodriguez of Holland, Rodriguez
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$638,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$666,077

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $638,098 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5edb…6ff1backed Rodriguez 17c407,341$71,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336,075.371435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Rodriguez 48c22,177$10,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,552.096051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Rodriguez 17c11,517$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,532.253938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Holland43c11,383$4,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,872.917841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Holland60c7,773$4,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,684.4214929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Rodriguez 18c7,000$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7755147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Holland68c6,846$4,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,633.4110443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Rodriguez 19c5,150$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,192.535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rodriguez 33c4,162$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.729336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Holland63c3,853$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,426.978248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Holland28c3,097$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.981533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Rodriguez 58c2,935$1,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.4720954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Rodriguez 15c2,567$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.9520249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Rodriguez 37c2,538$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.3223537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Holland69c2,438$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.158826.1%23 W · 65 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Holland10c2,367$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.67342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-73.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Rodriguez 17c2,342$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.151241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Rodriguez 58c2,145$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.311675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Holland71c2,116$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Rodriguez 20c2,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6006349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Rodriguez 17c2,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.9922144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Holland10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005012%6 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+272.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Rodriguez 18c1,812$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.064548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed Holland68c1,633$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.3320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed Rodriguez 30c1,625$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+57.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Rodriguez 25c1,505$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1291457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Holland3c1,200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351012%2 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Rodriguez 18c1,170$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.53342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Holland75c1,116$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83910522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc567…04bfbacked Rodriguez 19c1,061$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.951650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Holland75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75014530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Holland48c1,000$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4756943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Rodriguez 67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3306050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Holland30c995.43$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Rodriguez 22c924.84$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.849744.3%43 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Rodriguez 17c900$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7476829.4%20 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Rodriguez 16c837.5$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.52564%16 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+50.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Rodriguez 60c819.99$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33053956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Holland70c800$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56024862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Holland55c742.59$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.523652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Holland10c730.66$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.07619.8%6 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Holland56c700$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39426352.1%137 W · 126 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Holland72c700$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50112055.8%67 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d8…012abacked Rodriguez 16c625$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5253745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked Rodriguez 16c625$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5251172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+123.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5024…fdb2backed Rodriguez 16c618.75$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.751050%5 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+60.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Holland68c604.27$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.951163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4243…35d1backed Rodriguez 18c555.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+142.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Rodriguez 17c500$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+191.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x59e9…4660backed Rodriguez 18c500$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4101145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+79%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed Rodriguez 16c500$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+109%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2095…8521backed Rodriguez 17c499.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4152352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7055…9717backed Rodriguez 17c499.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.992958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+49.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfee3…58b2backed Rodriguez 55c473.49$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.59862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c77…ad93backed Rodriguez 20c472.1$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.682035%7 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x126b…a516backed Rodriguez 69c431.94$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-53.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb33…aaadbacked Rodriguez 20c420$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.272536%9 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9212…2ff6backed Rodriguez 16c419.12$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.062470.8%17 W · 7 L+5.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+81.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Rodriguez 15c402.81$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.8513953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x101c…4392backed Rodriguez 15c400$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid+15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Rodriguez 16c399.91$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9224847.2%117 W · 131 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Rodriguez 16c397.5$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.912541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Rodriguez 40c395.66$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.228544.7%38 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5879…bb5dbacked Rodriguez 25c386.21$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.212450%12 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+42.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Rodriguez 17c362.9$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.2113453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Rodriguez 56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1414045.7%64 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x804a…6c38backed Rodriguez 18c333.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.333138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Rodriguez 17c330$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.76633.3%22 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Rodriguez 16c315$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.62352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Rodriguez 16c300$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+73.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43e4…fd34backed Rodriguez 22c276.52$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.122835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Rodriguez 16c273.21$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.516951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe356…437ebacked Rodriguez 17c235.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.29683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.53per pick30cpaid+225.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Rodriguez 15c234.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.436031.7%19 W · 41 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa317…4ae3backed Rodriguez 16c230$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.52per pick31cpaid+211.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Rodriguez 18c224.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.2410045%45 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d73…3414backed Holland46c210$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.62343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe20e…5998backed Rodriguez 55c210$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.91154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Holland46c210$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.611540.9%47 W · 68 L-10.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Rodriguez 24c208.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.3329848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x395a…f202backed Rodriguez 31c203.75$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Rodriguez 17c200$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.55632.1%18 W · 38 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Rodriguez 16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1686456.3%36 W · 28 L+7.2wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+37.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Holland37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Rodriguez 17c200$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16613044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Holland47c190.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9510447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc559…ac69backed Holland44c188.57$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-49.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Rodriguez 16c187.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.52352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Rodriguez 60c180.83$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3321554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e2b…97b2backed Rodriguez 54c180$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.87745.5%35 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Rodriguez 17c176.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4728333.2%94 W · 189 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rodriguez 15c170.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1114751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Rodriguez 17c166.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8919230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Rodriguez 16c162.59$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.586036.7%22 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e2…cc43backed Holland60c159.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Rodriguez 16c156.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.2511138.7%43 W · 68 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafea…6c85backed Rodriguez 18c150$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+92.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f3…af4cbacked Rodriguez 17c149.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+119.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x079e…2bb8backed Rodriguez 17c147.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.061233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec6…bb5abacked Rodriguez 24c146.79$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.76650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.