TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 318: Phillips vs. Oliveira

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oliveiraof Phillips , Oliveira
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$278,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$316,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5edb…6ff1backed Phillips 41c51,424$21,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,083.831435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Oliveira59c46,833$27,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,201.564067.5%27 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Phillips 43c42,714$18,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,367.1810542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Oliveira57c34,263$19,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,729.1935253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Oliveira57c30,000$17,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,9004744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1de3…0321backed Phillips 43c23,378$10,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,052.631435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Phillips 40c22,714$9,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,085.6222259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Oliveira57c15,000$8,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,389.9913453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Phillips 43c12,000$5,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1604742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Oliveira57c6,556$3,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,81914857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eed…5a28backed Phillips 44c6,008$2,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,623.336829.4%20 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Phillips 42c5,980$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,511.391241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Phillips 30c5,635$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.116745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37d2…45eebacked Oliveira58c5,447$3,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,269.552360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Oliveira58c5,172$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.416645.5%30 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Phillips 41c4,271$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,751.2519544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Phillips 43c4,183$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.972751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Oliveira57c4,173$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,794.33857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Phillips 41c3,168$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.842653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa0…7894backed Oliveira58c2,648$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.16977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Oliveira57c2,543$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.072564%16 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Phillips 42c2,358$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.3318453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Phillips 35c2,312$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.1610443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Oliveira58c2,300$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9778256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Phillips 37c2,222$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.753655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed Phillips 42c2,208$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.221513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-67.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Oliveira60c2,179$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.0929848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Oliveira58c1,977$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.546050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Oliveira79c1,902$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.1923537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed Oliveira57c1,772$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.55666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Oliveira57c1,670$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.2512541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Oliveira45c1,627$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.53652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Phillips 43c1,519$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65312134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Phillips 42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.988348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x907b…d4c3backed Phillips 16c1,200$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Oliveira76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24042042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Oliveira57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4303458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Oliveira57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4304161%25 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Phillips 1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101012%2 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Oliveira58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Oliveira57c964.91$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.9135664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Phillips 55c894.39$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.9628043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked Oliveira57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.191172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+123.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Oliveira59c856.2$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.0451533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Phillips 43c800$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3443171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Phillips 41c778$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.2610041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97be…416dbacked Oliveira58c761.95$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.022955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Oliveira57c724.98$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.7433948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Oliveira56c714.29$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.2931855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb33…aaadbacked Phillips 13c704.74$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.212536%9 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked Oliveira58c691.47$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.471968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Phillips 42c690.65$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.076552.3%34 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked Phillips 33c655$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.945736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Oliveira56c649.99$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28613160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Phillips 40c595.95$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.0326451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Phillips 6c594.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6910447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Phillips 12c579.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.55632.1%18 W · 38 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x021a…56cbbacked Oliveira57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.321631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Oliveira58c510.34$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.342254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Oliveira56c500.45$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.584548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Oliveira50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+191.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7055…9717backed Oliveira50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+49.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Phillips 37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1852330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Oliveira57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21536745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Oliveira56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2205867.2%39 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Oliveira57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21517850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e9…4660backed Phillips 39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+79%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Phillips 41c478.29$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3556450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf909…2b17backed Oliveira56c456.75$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a56…ef97backed Oliveira56c446.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2b…97b2backed Oliveira59c441.99$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.57745.5%35 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Oliveira58c429.33$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.329744.3%43 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Oliveira58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16839959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Phillips 5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Oliveira57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1722842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Phillips 44c399.97$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.995147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Phillips 40c389$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.610522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Oliveira57c360.47$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.910045%45 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9e…239fbacked Oliveira57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.882536%9 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Phillips 27c350$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9332545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Oliveira58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.831136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c3c…5c56backed Oliveira57c340.61$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.462142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Oliveira61c327.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.6422753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Phillips 50c310$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.83342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Oliveira59c299.99$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12228743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Oliveira57c290.39$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.878220.7%17 W · 65 L-12.6wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Phillips 24c288.37$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.858544.7%38 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x429d…39a7backed Phillips 14c283.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.41933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+49.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4243…35d1backed Oliveira58c280.55$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+142.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fa…16cbbacked Oliveira74c271.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Oliveira56c255.68$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.517158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Oliveira59c244.07$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.079124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Phillips 43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda10…ffeabacked Phillips 43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c66…ca45backed Oliveira75c220$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4850%4 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6771…b783backed Oliveira60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x944b…c0c8backed Phillips 43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Oliveira58c193.61$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.857960.8%48 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0679…bebbbacked Phillips 43c186.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807258.3%42 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Phillips 43c186.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011540.9%47 W · 68 L-10.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.