TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2467…c702

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
110
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: UFC, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 55 out of 100; worst World Politics at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10045%45 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 100 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Jirí Procházka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.6
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Paulo Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+203.4%+$165.65
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Cub Swanson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+90.6%+$69.73
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Patricio Pitbull · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.95
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Chris Duncan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.87
UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Harry Hardwick · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Steven Asplund · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Charles Johnson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+1,900%+$285
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Moreno · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$165.98
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Bunes vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Cháirez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$32.1
UFC Fight Night: Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Chiasson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$42.84
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Tuivasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$199.8
UFC 325: Elekana vs. Tafa (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Elekana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+44.9%+$62
UFC 325: Elliott vs. Micallef (Welterweight, Early Prelims)backed Elliott · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$221.68
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Royval · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$78
UFC Fight Night: Charrière vs. Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+69.5%+$61.5
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+203%+$223.11
UFC 323: Dawson vs. Torres (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Torres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+233.3%+$209.98
UFC 323: Silva vs. Barber (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$21.12
UFC 323: Ziam vs. Sadykhov (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Sadykhov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$69.8
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$347.5
Brown vs. Bonfimbacked Brown · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$97.5
Salikhov vs. Medicbacked Salikhov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$135
Bonfim vs. Padillabacked Padilla · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+100%+$139.75
Dern vs. Jandirobabacked Jandiroba · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$143.11
Showing 25 of 100 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.