TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC 323: Ziam vs. Sadykhov (Lightweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ziamof Ziam, Sadykhov
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$364,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$414,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $364,862 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd123…d341backed Sadykhov36c46,055$16,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,579.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d04…7a5fbacked Sadykhov40c42,183$16,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,873.161478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick55cpaid+69.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1057…9ea5backed Ziam61c39,668$24,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,399.09875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Ziam64c31,950$20,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,501.919154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Sadykhov37c28,302$10,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,371.297233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Ziam63c27,667$17,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,249.975244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Ziam60c26,425$15,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,689.7735253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Sadykhov36c20,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,20016951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Sadykhov40c11,115$4,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,445.821861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Sadykhov35c10,960$3,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,877.018940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3306…7258backed Ziam66c10,580$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,580.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Ziam65c10,111$6,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,588.414530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Ziam65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.9922259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Sadykhov36c9,906$3,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,592.665657.1%32 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Sadykhov34c9,512$3,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,213.876346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Sadykhov34c9,368$3,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,214.4523537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Sadykhov37c8,300$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.9715641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Ziam64c7,817$5,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,811.1726743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Ziam66c7,273$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.735843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Ziam64c7,000$4,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,484.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+82.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ziam61c6,920$4,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,698.9530039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Sadykhov39c6,759$2,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,636.017545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Ziam63c6,675$4,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,502.9217752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Ziam61c6,226$3,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.6428849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Sadykhov44c6,179$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,701.77040%28 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Ziam65c5,849$3,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.233655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Ziam65c5,585$3,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.741855.6%10 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Ziam65c5,379$3,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.78560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Ziam65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7507656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09e8…8540backed Ziam65c3,997$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.52742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Sadykhov39c3,653$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.8418038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Sadykhov38c3,396$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.914040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Ziam63c3,334$2,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.88366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Ziam66c3,042$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.141241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Ziam65c2,478$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.2430964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Sadykhov36c2,222$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.922560%15 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa16a…c7eebacked Ziam56c2,196$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.95850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Sadykhov35c2,100$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7355653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f61…9f0dbacked Sadykhov45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4da5…e32ebacked Ziam65c1,920$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+67%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28d3…650abacked Sadykhov45c1,800$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4935…fd7ebacked Sadykhov45c1,800$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Ziam64c1,800$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64812052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Ziam62c1,612$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.898058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Ziam66c1,525$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.959164.8%59 W · 32 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe161…4ebfbacked Sadykhov35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c9…396dbacked Sadykhov35c1,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005362.3%33 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Sadykhov36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Sadykhov46c1,327$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.197843.6%34 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Ziam60c1,300$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52013735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Ziam54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+146%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d12…8ef9backed Ziam54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…d888backed Sadykhov46c1,200$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Ziam66c1,197$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.866937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Sadykhov36c1,165$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.6690553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd383…7c30backed Sadykhov45c1,120$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d90…1f46backed Ziam55c1,120$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ac…c2d9backed Sadykhov45c1,120$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3622…5918backed Ziam55c1,120$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c31…5240backed Sadykhov36c1,111$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31dd…3c7abacked Sadykhov36c1,111$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Ziam64c1,094$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08d4…3115backed Sadykhov35c1,064$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Ziam54c1,024$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.9917850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a1…88f3backed Sadykhov35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Sadykhov35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35011140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Ziam66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed Sadykhov36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3606060%36 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6cb…2aa7backed Sadykhov45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9094…3072backed Ziam55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Sadykhov37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3701540%6 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-38.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Sadykhov34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34021044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9363…3608backed Ziam65c999.99$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.56462.5%40 W · 24 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Sadykhov34c999.95$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9842042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Sadykhov35c999.68$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.8210928.4%31 W · 78 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4a8…72bcbacked Ziam55c900$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63d8…28bbbacked Ziam55c900$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd45c…0dd4backed Ziam55c900$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3c…ac5dbacked Ziam55c900$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Sadykhov32c811.47$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0137754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Sadykhov27c807.75$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.458840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Sadykhov34c776.95$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.1623850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Ziam59c773$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.931060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Sadykhov33c766$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.113636%49 W · 87 L-13.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f4d…6055backed Ziam56c747$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.682536%9 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Sadykhov44c704.55$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd811…dd70backed Ziam55c700$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69d4…18a6backed Ziam55c700$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Sadykhov36c694.44$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed Ziam72c664$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd8…39b1backed Ziam65c630.77$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.7710653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83ac…7805backed Ziam65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f92…498dbacked Ziam55c600$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Sadykhov29c598.19$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.1326352.1%137 W · 126 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Sadykhov42c595.41$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.6510043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Sadykhov19c594.47$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.310522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Sadykhov36c520$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.226140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7762…309ebacked Ziam58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.242552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Sadykhov38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902540%10 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Sadykhov17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856240.3%25 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.