TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0174…f66f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 51 out of 100; worst MLB at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT10043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 100 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Josh Emmett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Andre Fili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Harry Hardwick · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ion Cutelaba · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+292.3%+$116.92
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Vitor Petrino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$15.45
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Bruno Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.96
UFC Fight Night: SuYoung You vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed SuYoung You · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Manoel Sousa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+75.9%+$45.56
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Moreno · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.29
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Vera · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.52
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Bunes vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Bunes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.96
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Borjas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Royval · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$511Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$511.22
UFC Fight Night: Chikadze vs. Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Chikadze · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$200
UFC Fight Night: Charrière vs. Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+76.3%+$243.21
UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Gibson Jr. (Catchweight, Prelims)backed Gibson Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$150
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Amosov (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Magny · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$274
UFC Fight Night: Pat vs. Frye Jr. (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Frye Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$100.1
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Yan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+327.2%+$841.48
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+194.1%+$293.12
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Taira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+86.6%+$215.35
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Cejudo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$98
UFC 323: Ziam vs. Sadykhov (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Sadykhov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$249.65
UFC 323: Barboza vs. Turner (Lightweight, Early Prelims)backed Barboza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100.15
UFC 323: Aslan vs. Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)backed Aslan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 100 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-10-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Uzbekistan win on 2025-10-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juventus vs. Udinese end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+41.7%+$8.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.