UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d53194247ee26486ad18daea79e57c607e6f58ea4d9654cb205a899f1565413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kapeof Kape, Royval
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $408,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $447,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $408,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Royval | 31c | 87,619$27,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,028.12 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Kape | 74c | 38,192$28,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,094.52 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Kape | 79c | 32,563$25,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,725.31 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Kape | 71c | 30,000$21,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,700 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Royval | 29c | 29,830$8,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,650.7 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Kape | 68c | 20,170$13,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,451 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Kape | 69c | 20,087$13,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,227.1 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Kape | 70c | 20,000$13,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,039.97 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Royval | 30c | 16,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.98 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Royval | 26c | 15,511$4,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,032.78 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Kape | 67c | 15,349$10,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,065.17 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Kape | 71c | 15,000$10,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,422.62 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…ae61backed Kape | 70c | 15,000$10,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,499.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…025bbacked Royval | 31c | 13,226$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Kape | 69c | 12,030$8,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,729.18 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Royval | 31c | 9,384$2,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,909 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Royval | 29c | 8,622$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.36 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Kape | 71c | 8,511$6,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432.57 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Royval | 27c | 8,250$2,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,227.48 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Kape | 69c | 8,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Royval | 28c | 8,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.92 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…1a39backed Royval | 33c | 7,500$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Kape | 74c | 7,439$5,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.51 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Royval | 3c | 6,413$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.97 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Kape | 71c | 5,735$4,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.84 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Kape | 72c | 5,619$4,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.25 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Kape | 70c | 5,568$3,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Royval | 29c | 5,555$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.92 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…837dbacked Kape | 70c | 5,150$3,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Royval | 29c | 5,147$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.04 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Royval | 30c | 5,040$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.57 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ac…0a7abacked Kape | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Kape | 70c | 5,000$3,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.37 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Kape | 69c | 4,935$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.81 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Royval | 31c | 4,894$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Royval | 29c | 4,843$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.66 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Royval | 31c | 4,639$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.37 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Kape | 71c | 4,444$3,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.75 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -7.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Royval | 30c | 4,399$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.14 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kape | 70c | 4,290$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.94 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Kape | 69c | 4,000$2,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.99 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Royval | 30c | 3,910$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.98 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Royval | 29c | 3,875$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.96 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…e4c2backed Kape | 71c | 3,634$2,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.72 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…20bebacked Royval | 30c | 3,592$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Royval | 29c | 3,453$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Royval | 31c | 3,226$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed Royval | 31c | 3,226$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Kape | 72c | 2,778$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Kape | 69c | 2,500$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Royval | 26c | 2,437$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.53 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Royval | 29c | 2,333$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.25 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Royval | 29c | 2,325$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.72 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked Royval | 31c | 2,299$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Royval | 30c | 2,072$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.55 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…c4e4backed Royval | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Royval | 29c | 1,947$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kape | 69c | 1,889$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.66 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Royval | 31c | 1,676$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.22 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…d3f0backed Royval | 28c | 1,601$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…50eabacked Kape | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Kape | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…0aaabacked Royval | 31c | 1,475$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Kape | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked Kape | 70c | 1,371$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.43 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Royval | 31c | 1,326$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Royval | 28c | 1,300$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Royval | 26c | 1,171$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.53 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Royval | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Royval | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Royval | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Kape | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…8f46backed Royval | 30c | 973.33$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Royval | 31c | 895.17$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.17 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…b10bbacked Royval | 30c | 881.44$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Royval | 30c | 735.52$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…450abacked Kape | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Kape | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Royval | 31c | 682.59$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.23 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Royval | 26c | 680.66$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.97 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…3779backed Royval | 30c | 667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Royval | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…7582backed Royval | 30c | 655.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…ee46backed Royval | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d05…6f11backed Royval | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Royval | 31c | 607.34$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…a8fcbacked Royval | 29c | 594.23$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…2874backed Kape | 68c | 586.88$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Kape | 70c | 554.99$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.45 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…c194backed Kape | 70c | 542.69$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Royval | 31c | 500$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Royval | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Kape | 70c | 499.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Kape | 71c | 499.97$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…d49cbacked Kape | 70c | 468.19$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Royval | 30c | 462.37$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Kape | 71c | 450$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked Royval | 31c | 447.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Kape | 71c | 430.4$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012c…478ebacked Kape | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Brandon Royval win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Manel Kape win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.