UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0317199f2fe7ad35d439b7266fc6fae8d33f12baf3c27fa013bfd4f9b5b0440
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 36c | 1,146$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.65 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed No | 62c | 812.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked No | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…3779backed Yes | 44c | 425.67$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Yes | 40c | 422.2$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.88 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Yes | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked No | 66c | 294.96$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…59b5backed No | 64c | 203.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 56c | 188$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae25…94bbbacked Yes | 52c | 122.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 46c | 97.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed No | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked No | 60c | 26.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dd…bb53backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card)Kape won
- Will Brandon Royval win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Manel Kape win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.