UFC · resolved market
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bb9ff021b879722c365a5379cca88bcb2b2cc883f35893af3ff23f69306cfda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vanof Pantoja, Van
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,705,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,725,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,705,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 866 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7435…a620backed Pantoja | 67c | 297,225$200,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200,605.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Van | 33c | 270,000$88,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181,899.73 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Van | 42c | 180,746$76,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104,738.34 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Van | 33c | 170,563$56,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113,629.07 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Van | 32c | 159,984$50,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109,267.78 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Van | 32c | 119,999$38,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,099.5 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Pantoja | 67c | 102,942$69,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,232.26 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Van | 33c | 101,635$33,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,598.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…c625backed Van | 33c | 79,145$26,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,045.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…7a5fbacked Pantoja | 68c | 62,542$42,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,528.86 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a346backed Pantoja | 73c | 55,107$40,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,000 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Pantoja | 66c | 54,247$35,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,802.97 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Van | 34c | 45,559$15,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,184.47 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…57b3backed Pantoja | 68c | 41,897$28,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,489.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Van | 33c | 40,000$13,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,800 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Pantoja | 67c | 40,000$26,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,799.98 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Van | 33c | 38,986$12,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,164.91 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…9b66backed Pantoja | 68c | 36,749$24,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,989.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +90%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Pantoja | 67c | 31,498$21,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,064.89 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…d4ecbacked Pantoja | 67c | 30,677$20,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,553.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Pantoja | 66c | 28,843$18,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,948.25 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Pantoja | 66c | 26,914$17,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,871.11 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Van | 33c | 26,751$8,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,923.21 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Van | 32c | 24,482$7,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,647.77 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Van | 34c | 24,396$8,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,101.6 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Pantoja | 67c | 22,674$15,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,132.28 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…1cd1backed Pantoja | 68c | 20,326$13,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,821.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Van | 35c | 20,248$7,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,169.17 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Van | 32c | 20,004$6,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,602.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Pantoja | 66c | 20,000$13,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,200 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Pantoja | 66c | 20,000$13,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,199.97 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Pantoja | 68c | 19,118$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2339backed Pantoja | 69c | 16,664$11,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,495.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce37…b17bbacked Pantoja | 46c | 15,735$7,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,205.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Van | 32c | 15,013$4,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,176.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Van | 33c | 15,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,099.97 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Pantoja | 67c | 15,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,999.92 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf043…c6e7backed Pantoja | 67c | 14,917$9,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,994.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…7f88backed Pantoja | 68c | 14,682$9,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,983.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2aa…deecbacked Pantoja | 67c | 12,000$8,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,040 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Van | 33c | 11,116$3,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,481.46 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4a…0306backed Pantoja | 2c | 10,147$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…9390backed Pantoja | 67c | 10,000$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,700 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Pantoja | 66c | 10,000$6,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,600 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…8d9bbacked Pantoja | 68c | 10,000$6,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,800 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Pantoja | 67c | 10,000$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,699.93 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Van | 24c | 9,928$2,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,552.73 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…c2c7backed Pantoja | 67c | 9,000$6,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,030 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…f8fbbacked Pantoja | 67c | 8,699$5,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,811.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Pantoja | 66c | 8,011$5,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,287.12 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…59eabacked Pantoja | 67c | 7,575$5,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,075.25 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Van | 33c | 7,500$2,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,054.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Pantoja | 67c | 7,452$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…abe8backed Pantoja | 67c | 7,113$4,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,765.95 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Pantoja | 66c | 6,515$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…5932backed Pantoja | 69c | 6,500$4,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,485 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc2…00c7backed Pantoja | 67c | 6,113$4,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,126.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Pantoja | 67c | 6,009$4,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,026 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Pantoja | 66c | 6,000$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,949.99 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Van | 33c | 6,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,019.97 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Pantoja | 68c | 5,781$3,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,933.33 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Van | 33c | 5,589$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,744.59 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Pantoja | 66c | 5,583$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pantoja | 67c | 5,457$3,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,656.19 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…e447backed Pantoja | 68c | 5,248$3,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,568.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Pantoja | 59c | 5,167$3,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,026.74 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Pantoja | 67c | 5,164$3,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Van | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,349.99 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Pantoja | 71c | 4,800$3,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,387.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Pantoja | 67c | 4,750$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…4a7ebacked Pantoja | 67c | 4,478$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8874…c265backed Pantoja | 68c | 4,421$3,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,027.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Pantoja | 67c | 4,000$2,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,680 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Van | 34c | 3,999$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,659.31 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Van | 33c | 3,973$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,680.82 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…81b9backed Pantoja | 68c | 3,845$2,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Pantoja | 68c | 3,797$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Pantoja | 67c | 3,739$2,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,505 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…8540backed Van | 33c | 3,727$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Van | 33c | 3,416$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,291.48 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Pantoja | 68c | 3,220$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Van | 31c | 3,100$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Pantoja | 68c | 3,088$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…26efbacked Pantoja | 67c | 3,041$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…ab96backed Van | 32c | 3,041$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Van | 33c | 3,030$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.05 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb1…5418backed Pantoja | 67c | 2,985$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfe…3173backed Pantoja | 67c | 2,963$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Pantoja | 68c | 2,941$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3306…7258backed Pantoja | 68c | 2,941$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Van | 32c | 2,926$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.76 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Van | 33c | 2,855$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.61 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6352…6726backed Pantoja | 68c | 2,824$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Van | 33c | 2,550$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Pantoja | 68c | 2,550$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.79 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked Pantoja | 67c | 2,538$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Pantoja | 67c | 2,500$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…0d46backed Pantoja | 67c | 2,500$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Pantoja | 66c | 2,496$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.35 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…b7c8backed Pantoja | 68c | 2,300$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Alexandre Pantoja win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.