UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fc53231cf1caacecec6a7ecb2f42ee6fe80957c5f5971f1eab4cae0de91856d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8efc…478fbacked Under | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…921bbacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…7a8dbacked Under | 26c | 145$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…9c8cbacked Under | 26c | 143$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…98e2backed Under | 25c | 141$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +200%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…3ccabacked Under | 25c | 141$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…b5e4backed Under | 26c | 141$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ed…96c8backed Under | 26c | 139$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…8558backed Over | 74c | 138$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ab…d51fbacked Under | 25c | 137$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2994…92d2backed Over | 75c | 134$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…30e1backed Over | 74c | 134$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4d…2051backed Over | 74c | 130$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb4…e187backed Over | 75c | 128$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…25ecbacked Under | 26c | 127$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +370.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3812…0fecbacked Over | 75c | 126$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…f8dcbacked Under | 26c | 125$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…8837backed Under | 26c | 125$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6092…f6ddbacked Over | 74c | 124$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…0831backed Over | 74c | 120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…3157backed Over | 74c | 117$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2b…f705backed Over | 74c | 114$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…b81ebacked Over | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Over | 66c | 16.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff23…5959backed Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Van won
- Will Alexandre Pantoja win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.