UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadf5b4d632c41fa635b7052fdd9bcdbfd6956c891c5da0f52f2cae41d142fdca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 63c | 2,426$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.43 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…e88ebacked Yes | 43c | 2,340$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 42c | 1,601$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.62 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 38c | 1,598$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.38 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…b60abacked No | 59c | 755.5$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked No | 59c | 650$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked No | 56c | 638.64$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Yes | 41c | 501.69$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.69 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 58c | 500$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 38c | 403.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.23 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…f3bcbacked No | 61c | 326.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c9…50dcbacked Yes | 37c | 158$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129e…71fcbacked No | 63c | 149$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efc…478fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed No | 62c | 96.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…1114backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…2286backed No | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…2c0bbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Yes | 48c | 29.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed No | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 37c | 27.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…3b7abacked No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Van won
- Will Alexandre Pantoja win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.