UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d16691aad97c49e153dfaf65c0b9279fd81e3afe608e5f866f5d0422bc238a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c5e…cddfbacked Under | 35c | 166$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ec…be8abacked Under | 36c | 158$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cbeabacked Under | 36c | 154$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…6251backed Under | 36c | 153$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ca1fbacked Over | 65c | 152$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…3cc7backed Under | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…dd6cbacked Over | 64c | 149$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…d7f3backed Under | 36c | 148$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d5…f618backed Over | 64c | 146$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6092…f6ddbacked Over | 64c | 145$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…6bbebacked Over | 64c | 142$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…ad13backed Under | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…58d6backed Over | 64c | 139$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2994…92d2backed Under | 36c | 138$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f69…5092backed Over | 65c | 132$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f39…6ddabacked Over | 64c | 129$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Van won
- Will Alexandre Pantoja win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.