UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeee9c5900da6cfa04ea146c6b621f7d4cec424b2067d71d21e03b46949660b37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0fd…a346backed Yes | 50c | 10,000$4,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,985.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 50c | 8,554$4,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,272.59 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f90…163cbacked No | 54c | 4,373$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked No | 52c | 2,959$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.1 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Yes | 49c | 2,942$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 51c | 2,625$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 59c | 2,534$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 53c | 2,523$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.25 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…8792backed Yes | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 50c | 1,745$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.73 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed No | 58c | 1,224$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.19 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked No | 52c | 795.99$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.09 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 53c | 582.23$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.65 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…3d04backed Yes | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…82babacked Yes | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 48c | 211$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Yes | 47c | 195$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf0…0d2abacked Yes | 48c | 162.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…c018backed No | 63c | 153.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 106.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed Yes | 48c | 104.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a64…b5a9backed Yes | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8b…f0b0backed No | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…3584backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…9782backed No | 55c | 80.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…642abacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…1114backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…60e4backed Yes | 48c | 53.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 42c | 53.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…b253backed No | 63c | 52.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…8bf2backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…eafebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked No | 57c | 41.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…7337backed Yes | 48c | 34.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…ac2ebacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Yes | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Van won
- Will Alexandre Pantoja win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.