UFC · resolved market
O/U 3.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa967c69781375506f433021de5c69159a49fcc5ed404e44a9bcd3c9e2383e1cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb845…4a7fbacked Over | 4c | 1,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 4cpaid | +651.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Under | 45c | 1,289$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.74 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +6.0wins | +0.40per pick | 47cpaid | +914%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 310.78$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.73 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Under | 49c | 280$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…08d1backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +286.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbd…db64backed Under | 46c | 194$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…0465backed Over | 54c | 188$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…1ad0backed Under | 46c | 187$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40c…09afbacked Under | 46c | 185$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…e745backed Under | 46c | 183$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d5…f618backed Over | 54c | 179$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…15d9backed Over | 54c | 176$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cf…89b4backed Over | 54c | 172$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…0158backed Over | 54c | 171$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5435…3021backed Under | 49c | 143.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…8b30backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Over | 58c | 87.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 46c | 68.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…10d7backed Over | 54c | 59.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3375…7bdabacked Over | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…aea3backed Under | 49c | 21.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 3.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Van won
- Will Alexandre Pantoja win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.