TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x01ba…b77a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
241
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: UFC, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 57 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT22259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
UFC — the 222 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Manoel Sousa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$38,858Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+37%+$14,372.1
UFC Fight Night: Sam Hughes vs. Piera Rodriguez (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)backed Piera Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$957Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$751.87
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$27,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$27,300
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Caio Borralho · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$23,496Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+51.5%+$12,104
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Raul Rosas Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29,536Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+37%+$10,924.41
UFC 326: Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Ricky Turcios · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$1,799.96
UFC 326: Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+53.8%+$7,000
UFC 326: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Luke Fernandez (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)backed Luke Fernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$56,836Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$56,836.44
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Kavanagh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$36,590Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+185.7%+$67,951.94
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Martinez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14,600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+37%+$5,400
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Green · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+316.7%+$7,600
UFC Fight Night: Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Perez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$56,227Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+59.3%+$33,332.86
UFC Fight Night: Kris Moutinho vs. Cristian Quiñonez (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Moutinho · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$8,623Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$8,622.7
UFC Fight Night: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Reyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$5,520Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.9%+$2,480
UFC Fight Night: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Regina Tarin (Catchweight, Prelims)backed Regina Tarin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14,700Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+138.1%+$20,299.98
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Damian Pinas (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Pinas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10,350Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.9%+$4,650
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Hernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25,899.98
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Uros Medic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$36,750Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+185.7%+$68,249.98
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13,386Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+44.9%+$6,013.79
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Delija · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11,440
UFC Fight Night: Josiah Harrell vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Josiah Harrell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$5,204Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$5,203.52
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Reese · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13,208Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$13,207.82
UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Leal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21,280Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+78.6%+$16,719.99
UFC Fight Night: Ode' Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Idiris · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24,750Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+81.8%+$20,249.99
UFC Fight Night: Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Gurule · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$25,299.99
Showing 25 of 222 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+100%+$11,000
Bears vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$4,960Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+61.3%+$3,039.93
Spread: 49ers (-5.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$3,350Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+97%+$3,250
Spread: Ravens (-2.5)backed Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12,976Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12,976.42
Spread: Vikings (-2.5)backed Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$637Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$636.91
Vikings vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$3,989Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$3,989.35
Raiders vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$4,449Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+60.4%+$2,687.27
All 7 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: 76ers (-9.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$3,888Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,888.42
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$582Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$582.01
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.72
Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$8,098Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$6,902.17
Spread: Magic (-13.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$7,497Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+100.1%+$7,502.84
All 5 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Georgia (-6.5)backed Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$8,893Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$8,892.55
Alabama vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+100%+$208.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$73.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Red Sox vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,300
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.