Token Launches · resolved market
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc058561e320700e0d41143add9c2033c081a5f44452c4eaf415f58c3d417c28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $561,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $609,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $561,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 515 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1e0…e7bcbacked No | 64c | 45,532$29,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,239.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 5c | 39,580$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.05 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 47c | 23,655$11,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,129.25 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 32c | 21,130$6,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,698.9 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Yes | 41c | 15,869$6,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,542.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5f…403ebacked Yes | 38c | 14,280$5,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,434.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5b…dba4backed Yes | 56c | 13,000$7,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,229.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed Yes | 39c | 12,275$4,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,752.11 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…5be2backed Yes | 36c | 11,850$4,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,304.34 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 29cpaid | -92%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…c7aebacked Yes | 46c | 8,341$3,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,847.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f6…7dd5backed Yes | 18c | 6,199$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…ce96backed No | 47c | 6,191$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,291.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe6…9b73backed Yes | 39c | 5,826$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.04 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed Yes | 30c | 5,762$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.87 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 39c | 5,696$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,246.64 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…e9fbbacked No | 58c | 5,448$3,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,261.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 36c | 5,316$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.82 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 39c | 5,058$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,069.06 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…b42ebacked Yes | 53c | 5,016$2,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 48c | 4,727$2,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,466.95 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Yes | 40c | 4,529$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.9 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 50c | 4,430$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,195.45 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 64c | 4,298$2,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.05 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed No | 55c | 4,009$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…d601backed No | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 30c | 3,750$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.72 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…72a9backed No | 66c | 3,730$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.64 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9763…9eafbacked No | 60c | 3,566$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…39c7backed No | 51c | 3,541$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…c006backed Yes | 51c | 3,430$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,419$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.61 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…46bbbacked Yes | 36c | 3,353$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed No | 69c | 3,320$2,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 66c | 3,309$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.22 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…d941backed Yes | 3c | 3,150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed No | 50c | 3,022$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.1 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed Yes | 36c | 3,000$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…6019backed No | 50c | 2,843$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 56c | 2,818$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.29 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…beb8backed No | 50c | 2,798$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,569$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1b…9980backed No | 60c | 2,510$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 31c | 2,435$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.29 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe12…3093backed No | 61c | 2,400$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe25…8150backed Yes | 39c | 2,225$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a9…2b59backed Yes | 53c | 2,199$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 32c | 2,123$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.96 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes | 51c | 2,093$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.3 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…49d4backed Yes | 43c | 2,063$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…2b14backed Yes | 46c | 2,027$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 62c | 2,019$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.26 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked No | 54c | 2,007$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.09 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.44 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…95ffbacked No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1f…5317backed Yes | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed No | 65c | 1,996$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 60c | 1,951$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.05 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 43c | 1,916$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.07 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…6e66backed Yes | 33c | 1,864$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f0…d9cfbacked No | 59c | 1,838$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…8767backed No | 53c | 1,804$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked Yes | 44c | 1,710$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.38 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…8a45backed Yes | 60c | 1,670$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…55fcbacked Yes | 40c | 1,635$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,632$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…678fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,600$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed No | 56c | 1,582$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.82 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…7128backed Yes | 32c | 1,548$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…1042backed No | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…5c72backed No | 70c | 1,425$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 53c | 1,400$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,400$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 59c | 1,371$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.88 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4edb…a90dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,338$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…18ddbacked No | 63c | 1,332$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.74 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 52c | 1,325$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.6 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 45c | 1,250$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…6386backed Yes | 52c | 1,232$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed Yes | 50c | 1,200$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed No | 61c | 1,195$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…9420backed Yes | 27c | 1,170$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 38c | 1,152$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.61 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…d483backed Yes | 44c | 1,138$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe853…f99cbacked No | 58c | 1,129$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…3429backed Yes | 37c | 1,046$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.77 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,034$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…ab7fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,030$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8c…e19ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,021$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 55c | 1,015$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.13 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Yes | 46c | 1,010$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d8bcbacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba11…59d6backed No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…85c9backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked No | 58c | 1,000$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb01…e156backed Yes | 38c | 999.99$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 6c | 962.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…bc62backed Yes | 25c | 952.68$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 64c | 943.89$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.75 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.