Token Launches · resolved market
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeae650787ea4641bdc82165677136efc509012093a43f2463f0291224de55ece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $906,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,098,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $906,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8553…e799backed Yes | 66c | 46,715$30,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,944.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0f…78a2backed Yes | 15c | 40,849$5,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,962.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Yes | 13c | 29,892$3,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,856.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked No | 77c | 19,406$14,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,477.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…c026backed Yes | 1c | 16,803$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…0321backed Yes | 11c | 14,532$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ba8fbacked No | 29c | 12,763$3,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,061.16 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 5c | 12,720$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.41 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 18c | 11,586$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed Yes | 9c | 9,830$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…639ebacked Yes | 14c | 9,224$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…540bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,687$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a9…2b59backed Yes | 16c | 8,650$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ba…be9fbacked Yes | 26c | 7,934$2,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,073.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…3a93backed No | 3c | 7,500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,275 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.68per pick | 15cpaid | +1,034.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 10c | 7,340$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.48 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b7…12b9backed Yes | 17c | 7,335$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 17c | 7,300$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,024 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 7,293$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.8 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 31c | 7,012$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,856.84 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 19c | 6,805$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.94 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…49d4backed Yes | 5c | 6,531$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 76c | 6,500$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…f6aabacked Yes | 9c | 6,163$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 66c | 5,973$3,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.29 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab31…aaf1backed Yes | 13c | 5,928$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 13c | 5,765$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 5,238$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,920$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…3fd1backed Yes | 11c | 4,710$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f0…8a28backed Yes | 4c | 4,655$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.03 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6251…4307backed Yes | 26c | 4,621$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9710…5f99backed Yes | 4c | 4,288$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…3e3fbacked Yes | 15c | 4,151$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -89%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9d5abacked Yes | 12c | 4,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…9943backed Yes | 10c | 3,330$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 3,262$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.54 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 3,150$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,081$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.39 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba3…e6acbacked No | 75c | 3,062$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.44 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…47c6backed Yes | 3c | 3,008$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526c…b115backed Yes | 17c | 2,949$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…7a72backed No | 7c | 2,890$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,690.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +5.0wins | +0.71per pick | 14cpaid | +733.2%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe6…9b73backed Yes | 4c | 2,674$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…389ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,671$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 2,668$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed No | 4c | 2,550$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +507.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,435$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…f005backed Yes | 23c | 2,201$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,187$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…f844backed No | 69c | 2,118$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.51 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…bdb3backed Yes | 13c | 2,101$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf87d…80dcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,068$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…bb11backed No | 68c | 2,062$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a64…efd5backed Yes | 15c | 2,035$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830c…1a8cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,015$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…1c91backed Yes | 15c | 2,007$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x337f…fc4dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,004$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 72c | 1,998$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.45 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…e32ebacked No | 67c | 1,900$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 15c | 1,900$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.61 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…678fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,870$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…9282backed Yes | 18c | 1,863$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af6…bb84backed Yes | 11c | 1,860$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.97 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…8996backed Yes | 8c | 1,847$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Yes | 10c | 1,823$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 53c | 1,790$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.83 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,737$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed No | 50c | 1,700$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.99 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…b1e1backed Yes | 6c | 1,690$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 33c | 1,553$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.78 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed Yes | 12c | 1,530$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.4 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 6c | 1,322$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…41fbbacked No | 72c | 1,232$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,112$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…eb9bbacked No | 69c | 1,050$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked No | 69c | 1,041$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.99 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…9596backed Yes | 18c | 1,029$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,014$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…41bfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…3c44backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…8767backed Yes | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed Yes | 11c | 995.83$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 61c | 995.55$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.74 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…237bbacked Yes | 16c | 944.65$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked No | 75c | 939$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…caa6backed No | 75c | 914.45$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.06 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d8bcbacked Yes | 13c | 900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…0e63backed Yes | 6c | 873.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…0c23backed Yes | 9c | 834.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461d…124dbacked No | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85de…3717backed No | 62c | 799.99$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299e…31a6backed Yes | 3c | 799.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.