Token Launches · resolved market
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d852c504ee0f233ee90de142d6e4ae36cf770244e920aaafcd1546db839215a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,102,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $999,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,102,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 537 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92d0…ee19backed No | 20c | 33,532$6,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,728.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes | 77c | 29,579$22,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,692.73 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 17c | 16,203$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.56 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 77c | 14,180$10,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,202.74 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a55…ffaabacked No | 6c | 13,404$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…6592backed No | 21c | 13,000$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 79c | 12,567$9,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670.21 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 12,540$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.74 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…de04backed No | 23c | 12,500$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd5…9622backed No | 20c | 12,315$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…74f5backed No | 20c | 12,150$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…b18fbacked Yes | 76c | 12,149$9,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…e9fbbacked No | 9c | 12,102$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.38 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 23c | 11,715$2,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,752.59 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…1f6abacked No | 6c | 11,348$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.74 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 17c | 11,109$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.67 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dc…ff6cbacked No | 27c | 10,156$2,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,696.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…713dbacked No | 24c | 10,150$2,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 12c | 9,487$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.53 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed No | 19c | 8,744$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 4c | 8,598$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.58 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 8,457$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.31 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 4c | 8,284$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.41 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 15c | 8,081$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.95 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 7c | 7,993$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.69 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…bbe1backed No | 1c | 7,724$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked No | 7c | 7,557$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.63 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…e7bcbacked No | 12c | 7,460$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 20c | 7,390$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.71 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…ce96backed No | 7c | 7,360$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…d601backed No | 15c | 7,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 6,287$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.34 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 5,813$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked No | 4c | 5,471$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.94 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…7875backed Yes | 79c | 5,277$4,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 5c | 5,188$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.37 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked No | 7c | 5,067$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 4,983$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 3c | 4,700$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 77c | 4,600$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 15c | 4,557$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.36 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed No | 23c | 4,500$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.83 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 18c | 4,295$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.03 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…95ffbacked No | 4c | 4,283$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 4,161$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.88 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 9c | 4,017$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.22 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked No | 17c | 4,009$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.85 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5f5bbacked No | 8c | 4,000$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…776dbacked No | 6c | 4,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 13c | 3,796$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.48 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac3…6f93backed No | 8c | 3,786$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 7c | 3,679$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.69 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…9cbcbacked Yes | 77c | 3,650$2,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 3,530$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.14 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…f18abacked Yes | 80c | 3,450$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4936…d146backed Yes | 76c | 3,450$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3390…a7eebacked Yes | 79c | 3,420$2,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…583bbacked No | 16c | 3,413$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked No | 15c | 3,400$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…ae4bbacked Yes | 79c | 3,365$2,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…a179backed Yes | 76c | 3,350$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…969ebacked Yes | 76c | 3,350$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06f…6981backed No | 30c | 3,345$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked No | 6c | 3,327$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…9603backed No | 23c | 3,202$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.95 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…83bebacked Yes | 80c | 3,150$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +147%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dee…ca0ebacked Yes | 79c | 3,100$2,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…14efbacked Yes | 77c | 3,100$2,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…1518backed Yes | 79c | 3,080$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…6738backed No | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 79c | 3,000$2,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 34c | 2,976$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…ce4abacked Yes | 77c | 2,950$2,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…20d6backed Yes | 80c | 2,930$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed Yes | 76c | 2,880$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 3c | 2,874$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked No | 7c | 2,863$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.87 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…f388backed No | 7c | 2,844$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 2,819$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.77 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42d4…0cbebacked Yes | 77c | 2,800$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 23c | 2,795$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.62 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 18c | 2,756$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.58 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 3c | 2,747$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes | 77c | 2,717$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.17 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…414dbacked Yes | 74c | 2,686$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.02 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…26adbacked No | 6c | 2,630$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.14 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…cee2backed Yes | 80c | 2,620$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 11c | 2,610$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.96 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb16a…81cbbacked No | 15c | 2,599$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ae…df47backed No | 8c | 2,596$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.21 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f2…3358backed Yes | 76c | 2,593$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed No | 5c | 2,574$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4c…0873backed Yes | 79c | 2,548$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5897…3dd0backed Yes | 79c | 2,535$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 4c | 2,500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked No | 7c | 2,500$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.75 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 12c | 2,497$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.29 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 10c | 2,369$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.7 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 4c | 2,317$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.