TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbbd1…6fee

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 60 out of 100; worst Commodities at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT5448.1%26 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launchbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$831Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$830.55
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.85
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$889Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$888.58
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.02
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,005Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+87.9%+$1,762.62
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$785.71
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+300%+$750
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,051Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+137.1%+$2,812.05
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,677Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,677.12
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$1,000.04
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,588Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,588.05
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$530
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+297.9%+$708.1
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$529.83
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$2,600
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,599Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,599.03
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.19
Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.81
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$2,769Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+378.3%+$10,473.74
Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,070Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+33.3%+$356.52
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+129.5%+$183.34
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+128.2%+$708.58
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$600
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,803Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,803
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$242
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$149.99
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$237.9
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$409Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$408.63
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$420
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$629.87
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,401Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+87.9%+$1,232.28
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$500.15
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$160.39
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.68
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$366.73
All 17 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.56
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$255
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.98
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.04
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.99
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.45
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+1,400%+$1,119.99
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$144
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.09
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$205
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.94
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.04
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.48
All 16 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.