Token Launches · resolved market
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfa7530e73ac5aac46e4673e2837a49203849bff3eeacd427aec1c7a9a05c34a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17a7…470ebacked Yes | 51c | 9,175$4,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,482.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 64c | 9,138$5,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,826.8 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,844$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 21c | 4,777$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…5726backed No | 1c | 4,149$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 12c | 4,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…a166backed No | 10c | 3,498$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,240$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,785.09 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed No | 8c | 3,000$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 28c | 2,941$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.55 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 43c | 2,506$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.93 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…234abacked Yes | 73c | 2,460$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 20c | 2,217$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 2c | 2,060$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 22c | 2,014$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.45 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e7a3backed No | 24c | 1,796$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 38c | 1,543$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.74 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 55c | 1,526$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.68 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa707…0ef0backed Yes | 36c | 1,305$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…d038backed No | 8c | 1,118$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 47c | 1,111$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.16 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked No | 44c | 1,037$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 36c | 1,024$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.2 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked No | 25c | 1,010$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.47 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 26c | 1,004$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.46 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…93fcbacked No | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 43c | 999.97$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.98 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 976.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…d706backed Yes | 46c | 939.87$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 76c | 936.61$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.99 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…e7bcbacked No | 52c | 881.38$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 38c | 851.76$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.8 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe670…244bbacked Yes | 16c | 791.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…7fcbbacked Yes | 38c | 790.65$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…cd4abacked No | 7c | 779.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 54c | 718.44$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.01 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 18c | 690$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…b8e3backed No | 3c | 687.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 62c | 670.08$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.45 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dd…3046backed Yes | 36c | 653$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…6878backed Yes | 75c | 613.46$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 46c | 575$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 69c | 555.05$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.27 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 60c | 516.85$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.59 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked Yes | 60c | 508.01$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.82 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 3c | 507.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…b78abacked Yes | 20c | 501.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +401.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f78…2d21backed No | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed No | 79c | 500$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.4 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…4521backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 45c | 450$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed No | 56c | 405.06$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +159%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0a…89ddbacked Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…0c9abacked No | 54c | 399.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…d9dcbacked No | 57c | 394.17$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes | 30c | 374.17$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked No | 68c | 350$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 30c | 340.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…a008backed Yes | 45c | 329.8$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 11c | 325.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…6757backed No | 11c | 320.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…0959backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 47c | 278.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +995.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…d8febacked No | 56c | 275.58$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +304.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…5cdebacked Yes | 65c | 250$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed Yes | 48c | 249.13$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…4814backed Yes | 32c | 230$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed No | 33c | 226.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…a3bcbacked No | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffd…74bfbacked No | 35c | 211.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…0472backed No | 12c | 209.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbf…bcabbacked No | 69c | 205.12$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…c291backed Yes | 37c | 203.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…34c1backed Yes | 48c | 203.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…3d01backed No | 76c | 201.9$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked No | 43c | 200.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57e8…057ebacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…6ee6backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed Yes | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5d…909abacked Yes | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…5e24backed No | 58c | 185.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…4df5backed Yes | 51c | 175.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf5…6119backed Yes | 46c | 173.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 55c | 162.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…84e5backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +206.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 11c | 159.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…040bbacked No | 51c | 153$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd223…5ec2backed No | 39c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 57c | 136.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b12…8ee1backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…dd85backed Yes | 44c | 131.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…a216backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdb…39d1backed Yes | 48c | 118.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d2…decabacked No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.