Token Launches · resolved market
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb196c24738383bf2fc0aeeb8fc5e96e72dcf161e19e74ffd305883cc3951496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked No | 6c | 5,821$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.96 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 20c | 4,305$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.6 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes | 48c | 3,224$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.21 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes | 48c | 2,904$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.03 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 35c | 2,881$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.71 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb955…c7ccbacked Yes | 51c | 2,219$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…ebaebacked No | 60c | 2,037$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.09 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 40c | 2,000$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.25 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,872$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.4 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 11c | 1,807$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 41c | 1,805$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…0472backed No | 1c | 1,711$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,621$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe79…803abacked No | 49c | 1,600$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked No | 9c | 1,500$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 11c | 1,447$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 62c | 1,417$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.61 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked No | 18c | 1,259$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.7 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,236$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.24 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…1accbacked Yes | 65c | 1,221$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.82 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 42c | 1,200$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 1c | 1,197$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…f0d6backed No | 53c | 1,141$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 39c | 1,105$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.52 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd05d…88c5backed No | 12c | 1,100$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffd…74bfbacked No | 7c | 1,073$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes | 28c | 1,072$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…5ae3backed Yes | 50c | 1,024$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…d038backed No | 4c | 1,010$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…6bc1backed No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef0…4de5backed No | 48c | 999.63$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 986.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 53c | 975$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd08…80acbacked No | 54c | 935.74$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…983dbacked Yes | 73c | 915.23$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 26c | 898.98$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.25 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 50c | 887.99$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.67 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 49c | 863.91$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.45 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 58c | 837$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 67c | 830$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…b721backed Yes | 50c | 807.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 42c | 801$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 42c | 799$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked No | 56c | 767.53$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.96 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 58c | 763$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e7a3backed No | 6c | 725.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked Yes | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 53c | 625.97$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.25 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed No | 5c | 612.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 60c | 590.43$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.26 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…3218backed No | 52c | 560.1$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.56 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +268.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f78…2d21backed No | 6c | 559.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6b…13f2backed No | 11c | 513.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…f916backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…1a22backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 13c | 499.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed No | 48c | 450$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 8c | 399.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 3c | 396.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 10c | 345$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a04…4cfbbacked No | 12c | 304.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…a1afbacked Yes | 52c | 300.24$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 300$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 39c | 299.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…4df5backed No | 9c | 291.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…ce3bbacked No | 12c | 273.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…d732backed Yes | 47c | 260.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 250.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.79 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…9da6backed Yes | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…388abacked Yes | 46c | 250$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…4814backed No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…1501backed No | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 29c | 233$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.43 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed No | 12c | 226.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…d35fbacked No | 47c | 210$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3809…c073backed No | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…8d68backed Yes | 47c | 204.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7361…7be5backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…8742backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c01…f06cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f3…06c1backed No | 14c | 199.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…a3bcbacked No | 13c | 193.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed Yes | 15c | 190.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…a03bbacked No | 12c | 189.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 57c | 185.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…fe9bbacked Yes | 54c | 182.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 182.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…1b6dbacked No | 58c | 172.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -76%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe670…244bbacked Yes | 42c | 167.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.