TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$134,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,860 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8392…b94ebacked No6c5,821$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.963221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No20c4,305$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.615941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes48c3,224$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.212352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes48c2,904$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.032560%15 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed No35c2,881$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.714938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb955…c7ccbacked Yes51c2,219$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b29…ebaebacked No60c2,037$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.092020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x196c…0ffdbacked No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed Yes40c2,000$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.258630.2%26 W · 60 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x604a…a58ebacked Yes50c1,872$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.43256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No11c1,807$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.88205%1 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-82.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed Yes41c1,805$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22c3…0472backed No1c1,711$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c1,621$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.582061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe79…803abacked No49c1,600$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc507…5d1ebacked No9c1,500$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1343855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+31.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked No11c1,447$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.669920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed No62c1,417$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.615058%29 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x356a…bfeabacked No18c1,259$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.74531.1%14 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+265%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes78c1,236$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.243262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x433f…1accbacked Yes65c1,221$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.821485.7%12 W · 2 L+5.0wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+111.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No42c1,200$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49923841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9a34…7ca4backed No1c1,197$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.953330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x825e…f0d6backed No53c1,141$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.17825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No39c1,105$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.528744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd05d…88c5backed No12c1,100$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ffd…74bfbacked No7c1,073$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.53166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick21cpaid-86.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes28c1,072$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.831650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1887…5ae3backed Yes50c1,024$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.2837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+66%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d0…d038backed No4c1,010$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.72313%3 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…f992backed Yes35c1,000$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6555846.6%27 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ba0…6bc1backed No17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef0…4de5backed No48c999.63$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c986.64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.962442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed No53c975$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+94.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd08…80acbacked No54c935.74$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.992231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6f…983dbacked Yes73c915.23$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.46850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes26c898.98$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.254528.9%13 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed No50c887.99$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.6710948.6%53 W · 56 L+11.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+54%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked No49c863.91$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.4514335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe539…5345backed No58c837$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.46540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+82.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa3…3044backed No60c833.33$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005431.5%17 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed No67c830$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfef7…b721backed Yes50c807.92$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.92742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed Yes42c801$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes42c799$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9965…b6cbbacked No56c767.53$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.963333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5f…81c0backed No58c763$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb19…e7a3backed No6c725.88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.35911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a6…588ebacked Yes52c700$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3362356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed No53c625.97$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.253622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed No5c612.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbf…6c43backed No60c590.43$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.264942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+93.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…3218backed No52c560.1$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.562665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+268.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6f78…2d21backed No6c559.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-77.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6b…13f2backed No11c513.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked Yes71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1455459.3%32 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4759…f916backed Yes33c500$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7633…1a22backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77e4…d18fbacked No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No13c499.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.955152.9%27 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4822…0de4backed No48c450$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2162250%11 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11400%0 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e16…5026backed No8c399.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326246.8%29 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x73b6…5db1backed No3c396.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.825127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No10c345$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.56931.9%22 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a04…4cfbbacked No12c304.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x99f8…a1afbacked Yes52c300.24$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.14540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed No71c300$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2131338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No59c300$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1765945.8%27 W · 32 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed No17c300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No6c299.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181117.2%8 W · 103 L-12.9wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-79.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No39c299.53$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.176927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9227…4df5backed No9c291.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266222.6%14 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7bc…ce3bbacked No12c273.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8110%0 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e30…d732backed Yes47c260.62$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.131450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes42c250.5$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7919336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…9da6backed Yes53c250$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.54161%25 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c78…388abacked Yes46c250$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.79633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4218…4814backed No48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd6e…1501backed No5c240$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes29c233$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.431855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+49.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b5f…1d83backed No12c226.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.23619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…d35fbacked No47c210$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7110%0 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3809…c073backed No12c208.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3134…8d68backed Yes47c204.43$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.351435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1209442.6%40 W · 54 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed No49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9813134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7361…7be5backed No6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be6…8742backed No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-47.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8c01…f06cbacked Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f3…06c1backed No14c199.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd325…a3bcbacked No13c193.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed Yes15c190.4$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.846127.9%17 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2470…a03bbacked No12c189.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbaa9…4baabacked No57c185.64$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1056240.3%25 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3a…fe9bbacked Yes54c182.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.971546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No46c182.24$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6733329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadcb…1b6dbacked No58c172.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick60cpaid-76%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe670…244bbacked Yes42c167.52$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.52742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.