TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$155,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes1c28,820$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.414816.7%8 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e8…9a67backed Yes16c6,028$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked Yes11c5,892$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.5611421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1968…2261backed Yes42c5,465$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,318.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+110.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6904…ea7ebacked Yes1c5,274$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054a…798cbacked Yes12c3,881$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…b94ebacked Yes24c2,944$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.143221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed Yes7c2,422$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.258017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61b9…20a3backed Yes10c2,368$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.84122%9 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed No77c2,279$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.588854.5%48 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes12c1,781$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.22917.2%5 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed Yes10c1,452$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.352744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9965…b6cbbacked Yes15c1,348$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.53333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes8c1,295$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.74205%1 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-82.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1635…5624backed Yes12c1,252$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.865642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x19d0…d038backed Yes10c1,226$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.972313%3 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes4c1,098$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.032061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked Yes16c1,057$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1814335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57f9…bcd9backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c971.51$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.532442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…b912backed Yes11c900$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.423050%15 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+48.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes10c860.9$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.312268.2%15 W · 7 L+8.5wins+0.38per pick30cpaid+162.8%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x3e27…c659backed Yes19c857.27$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606114.8%9 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbabf…0dd6backed Yes24c846.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes12c798$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.859920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1084…d520backed Yes10c781.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.135538.2%21 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…066bbacked No71c710$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.21450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356a…bfeabacked Yes16c705.04$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.994531.1%14 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+265%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed Yes29c649.86$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.933622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaec9…d08ebacked No75c640.94$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e90…adcdbacked Yes5c614.78$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.69633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes7c601.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.054528.9%13 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf04e…8a94backed Yes34c582.49$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes5c576.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes6c553.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.121541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes29c510.96$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.634259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…256abacked Yes10c499.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485614.3%8 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2080…6d80backed No72c486.87$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.87520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes7c476.48$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.071117.2%8 W · 103 L-12.9wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-79.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x62c2…c7aebacked No76c433.43$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.62133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes7c431.85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.112010%2 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22c3…0472backed Yes5c429.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.21030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a34…7ca4backed Yes40c421.59$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4618…5a9fbacked Yes27c410.33$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes11c405.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.064129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x346e…3c06backed Yes15c393.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.41520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-58.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes17c363.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601435.7%5 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+995.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a37…a251backed Yes9c346.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x733b…0268backed Yes6c300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.68440.5%34 W · 50 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+38%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8ee…d12dbacked Yes14c296.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5e…7c8ebacked Yes8c289.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4954…a216backed Yes11c275.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes5c268.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.782231.8%7 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick16cpaid+295.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes19c267.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.586931.9%22 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes12c255.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5333%1 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffe7…89bfbacked Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x299e…31a6backed Yes10c249.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21e7…6757backed Yes9c244.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.552326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed Yes29c241.69$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes14c235.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked No69c224.51$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.584136.6%15 W · 26 L-5.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1a9…6c69backed Yes37c215.46$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b63…aa97backed Yes16c200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314425%11 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c31…1b6bbacked Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6817…f496backed No75c198.54$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.673946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a2…20aebacked Yes13c193.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5819…34c1backed Yes10c185$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.87425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1315…a84abacked Yes32c184$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.882231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b69…66b0backed Yes9c180$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.224337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8080…8a7ebacked No79c180$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.91353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc05…f600backed Yes8c179.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a0…db2ebacked Yes30c158.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes9c145$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5746320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No71c140.48$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.061861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf625…9d5dbacked Yes13c134.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.115219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99cc…36f0backed No76c130.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…9da6backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164161%25 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1406…f6c9backed No78c99.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes11c93.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10553.6%2 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick16cpaid-83.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes26c89.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.55650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes19c83.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.193218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93e2…92b9backed Yes14c78.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0480%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x382a…b590backed Yes27c75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-69.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes17c63.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.543033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4f…63f3backed Yes32c60.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes34c47.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No69c46.27$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.234891.7%44 W · 4 L+9.0wins+0.19per pick73cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xccc4…77cabacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d5…aba1backed No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.451060%6 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.