Token Launches · resolved market
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72ecc8c75d781d0d8584afdac7928c85e62a1ee5c73e67c7d587da88aa941544
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 1c | 28,820$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.41 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…9a67backed Yes | 16c | 6,028$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 11c | 5,892$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.56 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…2261backed Yes | 42c | 5,465$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,318.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6904…ea7ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,274$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…798cbacked Yes | 12c | 3,881$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,944$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.14 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 7c | 2,422$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…20a3backed Yes | 10c | 2,368$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.8 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 77c | 2,279$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.58 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,781$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 10c | 1,452$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,348$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.5 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 8c | 1,295$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.74 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed Yes | 12c | 1,252$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.86 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…d038backed Yes | 10c | 1,226$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 1,098$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 16c | 1,057$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.18 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 971.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed Yes | 11c | 900$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 10c | 860.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.38per pick | 30cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 19c | 857.27$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…0dd6backed Yes | 24c | 846.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 12c | 798$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 10c | 781.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…066bbacked No | 71c | 710$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked Yes | 16c | 705.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Yes | 29c | 649.86$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.93 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…d08ebacked No | 75c | 640.94$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…adcdbacked Yes | 5c | 614.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 7c | 601.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…8a94backed Yes | 34c | 582.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 5c | 576.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 553.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 29c | 510.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.63 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2080…6d80backed No | 72c | 486.87$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 7c | 476.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…c7aebacked No | 76c | 433.43$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 7c | 431.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…0472backed Yes | 5c | 429.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed Yes | 40c | 421.59$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4618…5a9fbacked Yes | 27c | 410.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes | 11c | 405.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…3c06backed Yes | 15c | 393.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 17c | 363.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +995.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a37…a251backed Yes | 9c | 346.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ee…d12dbacked Yes | 14c | 296.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5e…7c8ebacked Yes | 8c | 289.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…a216backed Yes | 11c | 275.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 5c | 268.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 16cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 19c | 267.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 12c | 255.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…89bfbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299e…31a6backed Yes | 10c | 249.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…6757backed Yes | 9c | 244.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 29c | 241.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 14c | 235.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 69c | 224.51$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a9…6c69backed Yes | 37c | 215.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…aa97backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…1b6bbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed No | 75c | 198.54$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…20aebacked Yes | 13c | 193.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…34c1backed Yes | 10c | 185$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 32c | 184$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed Yes | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…8a7ebacked No | 79c | 180$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed Yes | 8c | 179.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…db2ebacked Yes | 30c | 158.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 71c | 140.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…9d5dbacked Yes | 13c | 134.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cc…36f0backed No | 76c | 130.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…9da6backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…f6c9backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 11c | 93.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 26c | 89.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 19c | 83.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 14c | 78.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 27c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 17c | 63.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…63f3backed Yes | 32c | 60.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 34c | 47.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 46.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…77cabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…aba1backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.