Token Launches · resolved market
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16022635faa34c529d86a6c54948cf28ca047ef35e0110ac9b8aaceddbb5a0bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa32c…71b6backed Yes | 2c | 5,460$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…e36ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,155$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,735$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…8b28backed Yes | 1c | 4,115$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 4,112$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…f44ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,160$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…798cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,690$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,951$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc583…7a35backed Yes | 2c | 1,740$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,347$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2e…aab7backed Yes | 1c | 1,342$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,091$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 1c | 1,088$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…810cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,062$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,021$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5100…a2edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,014$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…20aebacked Yes | 3c | 870.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 845.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…84e7backed Yes | 5c | 822.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked Yes | 3c | 695.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked Yes | 2c | 621.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 2c | 598.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.38per pick | 30cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…d038backed Yes | 3c | 458.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Yes | 5c | 389.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked No | 79c | 381.47$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.11 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…9a67backed Yes | 5c | 250.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b57…5089backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…3b3bbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?this page
- Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.