Token Launches · resolved market
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf662101585439f6b1a1f802fd1bc233e28ae901f746899e452c9b74ad02e1bde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5117…8c4ebacked Yes | 77c | 10,786$8,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 0c | 9,122$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 74c | 8,781$6,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,461.69 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 10c | 6,870$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.14 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked Yes | 23c | 6,681$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,164.79 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x334c…0f55backed No | 0c | 6,069$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 5,072$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 38c | 4,961$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…470ebacked Yes | 32c | 4,550$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,091.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 28c | 3,466$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,507.38 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed No | 16c | 2,973$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.8 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 69c | 2,783$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed Yes | 35c | 2,281$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.65 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked No | 59c | 2,200$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 8c | 2,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 71c | 1,841$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.53 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed Yes | 23c | 1,800$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…e7bcbacked No | 75c | 1,797$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…e6a5backed No | 1c | 1,742$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…e20fbacked No | 8c | 1,682$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9580…7b15backed No | 1c | 1,650$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 28c | 1,525$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.76 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 26c | 1,481$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.36 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…8a94backed Yes | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 1,259$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.22 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 58c | 1,242$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.86 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed Yes | 59c | 1,223$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.16 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 75c | 1,180$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.42 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 78c | 1,122$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.06 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 72c | 1,115$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.07 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…93fcbacked No | 13c | 1,025$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…be6cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…adcdbacked No | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 33c | 900$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.85 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes | 10c | 858.49$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 810.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…a216backed Yes | 25c | 809.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 62c | 799.99$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.19 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 26c | 768.46$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.31 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…6bb0backed Yes | 45c | 764.18$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 17c | 743.88$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 72c | 700$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 29c | 570$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.03 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 40c | 565.53$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.72 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa707…0ef0backed Yes | 18c | 559.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 28c | 531.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.59 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.38per pick | 30cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…9890backed No | 71c | 500$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 74c | 499.69$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.27 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 23c | 490.61$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +995.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…d08ebacked Yes | 39c | 478.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed Yes | 31c | 465.87$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.71 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…d8febacked No | 73c | 415$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +304.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed No | 64c | 407.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.71 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…2261backed Yes | 24c | 400.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 24c | 400$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e7a3backed No | 25c | 398.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 16c | 396.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…f6c9backed No | 42c | 394.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 32c | 388.01$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.54 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5e…7c8ebacked Yes | 49c | 357$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 18c | 328.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7631…564ebacked Yes | 33c | 321.63$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…f0dcbacked No | 79c | 320$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…0dd6backed Yes | 64c | 310.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 19c | 309.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…db4fbacked No | 32c | 309.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 32c | 304.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.97 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 31c | 301.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.07 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…3e6ebacked No | 68c | 300$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…18ddbacked Yes | 51c | 291.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.44 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…ea6fbacked No | 63c | 273.46$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.04 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 66c | 263.34$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked No | 80c | 251.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…5ff5backed No | 61c | 234.54$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.69 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 16c | 233.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…ab93backed Yes | 23c | 227.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 31c | 221.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.63 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7910…29e0backed No | 72c | 210.46$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…02ddbacked Yes | 27c | 208.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…b450backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +314.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd585…b1b9backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 56c | 194.57$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…a008backed Yes | 34c | 194.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 77c | 179.93$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc0…65a2backed Yes | 56c | 172.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 25c | 163.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffd…74bfbacked No | 21c | 160.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 73c | 157.3$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 13c | 153.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 19c | 152.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…fc6abacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…0861backed No | 20c | 149.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed No | 39c | 147.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…6878backed Yes | 69c | 144.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…9a67backed Yes | 61c | 132.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…f0b4backed No | 77c | 129.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed Yes | 30c | 113.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…3c06backed Yes | 49c | 109.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.