TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$175,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,609

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,919 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5117…8c4ebacked Yes77c10,786$8,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.97742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55c0…6c7bbacked No0c9,122$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.742010%2 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No74c8,781$6,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,461.6915941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked No10c6,870$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.144816.7%8 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…b94ebacked Yes23c6,681$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,164.793221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x334c…0f55backed No0c6,069$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c5,072$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.422061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes38c4,961$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0561442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+4.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17a7…470ebacked Yes32c4,550$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,091.592100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+153.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked Yes28c3,466$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,507.3814335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1084…d520backed No16c2,973$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.85538.2%21 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a34…7ca4backed No69c2,783$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9253330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1635…5624backed Yes35c2,281$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.655642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc507…5d1ebacked No59c2,200$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2873855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+31.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed No8c2,000$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1646127.9%17 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed No71c1,841$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.535642.9%24 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+260.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x57f9…bcd9backed Yes23c1,800$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.751643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e0…e7bcbacked No75c1,797$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.171735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4d8…e6a5backed No1c1,742$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa0…e20fbacked No8c1,682$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9580…7b15backed No1c1,650$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes28c1,525$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.769920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No26c1,481$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.368032.5%26 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf04e…8a94backed Yes74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes58c1,259$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.225650%28 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes58c1,242$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.864259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6817…f496backed Yes59c1,223$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.163946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No1c1,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.381541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No75c1,180$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.42205%1 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-82.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed No78c1,122$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.064938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No72c1,115$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.0715041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff8d…93fcbacked No13c1,025$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.64533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…be6cbacked Yes27c1,000$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7305832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e90…adcdbacked No4c999.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd1…6feebacked No33c900$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.855448.1%26 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes10c858.49$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.941650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No5c810.77$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.632442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4954…a216backed Yes25c809.72$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No62c799.99$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.1919543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked Yes26c768.46$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.3111421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b75…6bb0backed Yes45c764.18$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.21145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No17c743.88$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.96931.9%22 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed No72c700$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5043151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes29c570$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.034528.9%13 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed No40c565.53$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.723622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa707…0ef0backed Yes18c559.99$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.25966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+75.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes28c531.03$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.592268.2%15 W · 7 L+8.5wins+0.38per pick30cpaid+162.8%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x3e27…9890backed No71c500$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.53531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-49.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No74c499.69$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.275152.9%27 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes23c490.61$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.611435.7%5 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+995.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaec9…d08ebacked Yes39c478.44$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b69…66b0backed Yes31c465.87$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.714337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f7…d8febacked No73c415$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+304.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15ce…b912backed No64c407.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.713050%15 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+48.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1968…2261backed Yes24c400.3$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+110.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes24c400$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.43447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb19…e7a3backed No25c398.69$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No16c396.52$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.492917.2%5 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1406…f6c9backed No42c394.99$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes32c388.01$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.541631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick14cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b5e…7c8ebacked Yes49c357$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No18c328.74$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.214835.4%17 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7631…564ebacked Yes33c321.63$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+200.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fac…f0dcbacked No79c320$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbabf…0dd6backed Yes64c310.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No19c309.57$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.951117.2%8 W · 103 L-12.9wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-79.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xed85…db4fbacked No32c309.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.21942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Yes32c304.49$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.973265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e16…5026backed Yes31c301.53$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.076246.8%29 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1315…a84abacked Yes44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1682231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce5e…3e6ebacked No68c300$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6388…18ddbacked Yes51c291.44$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.442360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88aa…ea6fbacked No63c273.46$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.042268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No66c263.34$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.848744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9f…047ebacked No80c251.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-74.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x48db…5ff5backed No61c234.54$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.693243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a3…e5afbacked No16c233.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.98234.3%1 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.24per pick28cpaid-93.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5579…ab93backed Yes23c227.09$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.95520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes31c221.38$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.633716.2%6 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7910…29e0backed No72c210.46$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.621225%3 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2583…02ddbacked Yes27c208.68$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.982360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+51.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf3f3…b450backed Yes24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+314.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd585…b1b9backed Yes22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+456.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes56c194.57$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.617745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a8…a008backed Yes34c194.01$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.661163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick39cpaid+118.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes77c179.93$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.934100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cc0…65a2backed Yes56c172.9$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No25c163.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.153495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ffd…74bfbacked No21c160.15$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.04166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick21cpaid-86.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0c8…e944backed No73c157.3$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6350%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No13c153.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85333%1 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed Yes19c152.43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.175058%29 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c3e…fc6abacked No70c150$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe384…0861backed No20c149.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.861241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b5f…1d83backed No39c147.09$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.993619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafc3…6878backed Yes69c144.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.221566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e8…9a67backed Yes61c132.45$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.66837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa967…f0b4backed No77c129.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad67…d6e0backed Yes30c113.27$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.974723.4%11 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x346e…3c06backed Yes49c109.5$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-58.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.