TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7fac…f0dc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Champions League, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 59 out of 100; worst Tweets at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-48.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+178.6%+$24.9
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.76
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$159
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$115.02
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$43.51
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$329.04
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$202.22
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$863Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+25%+$215.85
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$890Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+26.4%+$235.03
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$65
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$15.18
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+38.9%+$33.6
All 13 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST1080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+113.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+809.1%+$808.87
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+49.3%+$32.99
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+122.2%+$55
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+39.9%+$57
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+53.8%+$35
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$86
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+177.8%+$64
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+49.3%+$33
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$39
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+31.6%+$31.58
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+66.7%+$40
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+88.7%+$46.99
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+25%+$20
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+69.5%+$41
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+63.9%+$39
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+62.6%+$23.1
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+156.4%+$18.3
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$15.9
All 9 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$161.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.27
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.