Token Launches · resolved market
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b39923e3662b7eab6ded8f0215404bc03e91de7b844f74e7d3a2b8393135467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,608,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,608,508 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd022…6461backed Yes | 61c | 377,371$231,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231,157.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe69…f330backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…8100backed Yes | 1c | 50,485$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.93 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…716bbacked Yes | 3c | 46,260$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 42c | 39,585$16,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,975.7 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 37c | 36,930$13,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,215.96 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed No | 46c | 30,000$13,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,200 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 39c | 29,623$11,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,076.56 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa8…dafbbacked Yes | 0c | 26,740$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 67c | 26,000$17,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,512 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…7552backed No | 40c | 24,438$9,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,592.59 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 64c | 22,332$14,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,021.47 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 50c | 22,040$11,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,011.69 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed Yes | 2c | 21,523$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc424…e5ecbacked No | 38c | 21,002$7,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,022.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes | 2c | 20,401$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 33c | 19,583$6,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,045.08 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449a…68a4backed Yes | 59c | 17,927$10,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,606.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78a0…776abacked No | 34c | 16,500$5,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,834.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…1078backed Yes | 3c | 16,164$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.79 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 42c | 16,007$6,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,325.52 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…7e7dbacked Yes | 2c | 15,167$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Yes | 48c | 14,507$6,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,980.99 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 45c | 14,237$6,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,761.65 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…ae63backed Yes | 2c | 13,201$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aff…7035backed No | 31c | 13,081$4,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,987.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed No | 42c | 13,046$5,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,631.74 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…c869backed No | 46c | 12,023$5,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,528.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…4203backed No | 60c | 11,523$6,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,581.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 7c | 11,487$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.73 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc05…013abacked No | 56c | 11,444$6,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,992.77 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 39cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…c3c4backed No | 52c | 11,171$5,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,322.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…c67abacked Yes | 58c | 11,024$6,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,381.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…1a88backed No | 39c | 10,996$4,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,697.09 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…6d5ebacked Yes | 60c | 10,637$6,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,389.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed Yes | 46c | 10,527$4,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,793.42 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…583bbacked No | 48c | 10,340$4,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,343.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…4b78backed Yes | 52c | 10,325$5,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,389.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f73…17b6backed Yes | 68c | 10,325$6,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,974.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 65c | 10,309$6,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,646.44 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 35c | 10,223$3,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,633.09 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…de7abacked Yes | 5c | 10,033$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x799e…7bdfbacked Yes | 0c | 9,863$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…e8a1backed No | 67c | 9,852$6,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,288.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…cc4ebacked Yes | 63c | 9,610$6,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,092.34 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d8…219fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,765$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 57c | 8,458$4,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,673.23 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 33c | 7,950$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,359.48 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked Yes | 1c | 7,610$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f12…e43dbacked Yes | 62c | 7,608$4,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,747.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed No | 44c | 7,530$3,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,222.4 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…2dd9backed No | 43c | 7,367$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,167.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 41c | 7,242$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,256.15 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 35c | 7,229$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,683.73 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 54c | 7,140$3,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,284.51 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…adcdbacked Yes | 1c | 7,139$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked Yes | 1c | 6,889$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d9…68a3backed Yes | 6c | 6,862$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked No | 50c | 6,840$3,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,396.05 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…cd5fbacked Yes | 9c | 6,599$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 2c | 6,583$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…cd70backed No | 53c | 6,570$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,070.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7c…14b0backed Yes | 45c | 6,482$2,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,916.82 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…6b80backed No | 39c | 6,464$2,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,938.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb057…a37dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,400$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…41fbbacked No | 34c | 6,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,960 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 46c | 6,000$2,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,214.33 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…54c2backed No | 35c | 5,900$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,811.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…8983backed No | 35c | 5,896$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,836.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23e…1461backed No | 56c | 5,885$3,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,575.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…dcdfbacked No | 31c | 5,880$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,057.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f8…4a6fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,865$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…9755backed Yes | 70c | 5,622$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,959.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 5,522$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.94 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked No | 62c | 5,289$3,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.94 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed No | 49c | 5,150$2,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,611.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…3e14backed Yes | 45c | 5,009$2,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,253.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…a933backed No | 30c | 5,000$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,502.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…dbcfbacked Yes | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…262ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,986$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed No | 78c | 4,978$3,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.53 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…0f6fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,910$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc373…c939backed Yes | 4c | 4,869$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 49c | 4,793$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432.95 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x691c…e0aabacked Yes | 17c | 4,770$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.79 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes | 58c | 4,760$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,742.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb66…40b6backed Yes | 3c | 4,557$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…2de2backed No | 37c | 4,448$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,802.09 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…4879backed Yes | 45c | 4,428$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…4cf2backed No | 32c | 4,388$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,982.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 55c | 4,373$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.45 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked No | 46c | 4,365$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,378.63 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Yes | 9c | 4,352$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.02 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…861fbacked Yes | 48c | 4,328$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…9d95backed Yes | 34c | 4,262$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 49c | 4,258$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.73 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 33c | 4,235$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,827.64 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 76c | 4,090$3,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.7 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.