Token Launches · resolved market
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d75864791b4e9302b8d2d29cd4538ede98b539c0b500a8fcdfe2ee0a01262b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,456,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,456,909 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3107…a26fbacked Yes | 9c | 60,037$5,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,633.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed Yes | 20c | 37,721$7,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,704.61 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c76…d2f5backed No | 77c | 20,676$15,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,798.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7996…b669backed Yes | 5c | 20,469$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed Yes | 0c | 19,400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…1777backed No | 56c | 17,617$9,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,752.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 6c | 17,100$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.49 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 74c | 15,941$11,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,123.24 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f73…17b6backed Yes | 25c | 14,833$3,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,666.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 3c | 14,435$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…3aadbacked Yes | 55c | 11,715$6,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,408.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fb…f27cbacked Yes | 8c | 11,434$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…3f84backed Yes | 37c | 9,510$3,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,510.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,898$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…2870backed Yes | 40c | 8,845$3,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,521.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 8,702$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.37 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 38c | 8,691$3,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,279.53 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b1…1945backed Yes | 71c | 8,616$6,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,153.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…266fbacked Yes | 60c | 8,400$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,040 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed Yes | 40c | 8,131$3,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,212.23 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7c…14b0backed Yes | 16c | 8,000$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…1cc2backed Yes | 43c | 7,732$3,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,294.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 24c | 7,671$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834.4 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…0a67backed No | 59c | 7,361$4,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,046.45 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +7.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…645bbacked No | 18c | 7,218$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,906.46 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…eb2abacked Yes | 4c | 7,122$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7938…95ccbacked No | 61c | 7,000$4,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 48c | 6,930$3,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,583.59 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7212…de43backed Yes | 45c | 6,704$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 41c | 6,547$2,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,885.51 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 60c | 6,502$3,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,589.12 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…e68abacked No | 50c | 6,413$3,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,234.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,222$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…8ea1backed Yes | 5c | 6,091$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…69b7backed No | 61c | 5,851$3,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,290.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 17c | 5,837$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,859.86 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 5,700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 30c | 5,697$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.39 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…8100backed Yes | 19c | 5,551$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cc…860cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,288$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…5882backed No | 23c | 5,287$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,094.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,219$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…27efbacked No | 39c | 5,090$2,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,083 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 21c | 5,065$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,983.06 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 77c | 5,061$3,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.18 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Yes | 51c | 5,006$2,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,575 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…a875backed No | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,749.99 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +6.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…75a7backed Yes | 20c | 4,942$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 76c | 4,810$3,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,665.69 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…5350backed No | 30c | 4,634$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,228.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x839c…dcc6backed Yes | 31c | 4,550$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.47 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 4,478$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…a397backed No | 69c | 4,352$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…8cbebacked No | 75c | 4,290$3,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 41c | 4,268$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.45 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…4521backed Yes | 78c | 4,211$3,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,271.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae3d…68ebbacked Yes | 76c | 4,189$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…e2c5backed Yes | 41c | 4,129$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…635ebacked Yes | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 5c | 4,066$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…f509backed Yes | 9c | 4,060$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1042…fe36backed No | 56c | 4,018$2,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.04 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a50…3e95backed Yes | 67c | 3,927$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 30c | 3,915$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.07 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x826b…9c34backed No | 40c | 3,800$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcafe…4fc8backed No | 74c | 3,762$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 30c | 3,737$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,629.87 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc2…a786backed No | 60c | 3,615$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.84 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.44per pick | 48cpaid | +105%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ed…7803backed No | 50c | 3,613$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 33c | 3,570$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.9 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ab…5a1abacked No | 71c | 3,561$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…4ef6backed Yes | 60c | 3,513$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,124.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53f5…28dcbacked Yes | 7c | 3,479$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 12c | 3,467$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.43 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…e8a1backed No | 70c | 3,428$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…642abacked Yes | 47c | 3,403$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…e45cbacked No | 18c | 3,400$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,780.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +449.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…4899backed No | 78c | 3,360$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9763…a292backed No | 74c | 3,354$2,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…880fbacked No | 73c | 3,316$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bed…43b2backed Yes | 70c | 3,272$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…38a1backed Yes | 70c | 3,266$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,286.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…910dbacked Yes | 12c | 3,250$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ba8fbacked Yes | 44c | 3,200$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.08 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 33c | 3,175$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6e…c213backed Yes | 33c | 3,076$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ed…40b1backed No | 31c | 3,042$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…7522backed Yes | 12c | 3,027$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…a53cbacked No | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda38…7beabacked No | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 80c | 2,999$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.44 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 56c | 2,944$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.73 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fc…b770backed Yes | 68c | 2,940$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x384c…08d2backed Yes | 23c | 2,888$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 72c | 2,888$2,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.49 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…d9a6backed Yes | 71c | 2,859$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…d9e7backed Yes | 21c | 2,855$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 70c | 2,712$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?this page
- Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.