Token Launches · resolved market
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52f1001739aefba842488963090f73d056c71eb72e2b239c6b7a9eaf86ccaf29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,812,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,812,452 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,038 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3107…a26fbacked Yes | 7c | 57,928$4,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,181.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d59…64dfbacked Yes | 0c | 46,690$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 0c | 41,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 3c | 35,133$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.68 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…526fbacked Yes | 32c | 34,059$10,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,938.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +223.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 32c | 21,790$6,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,909.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3d…93febacked Yes | 5c | 21,032$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f73…17b6backed Yes | 12c | 18,473$2,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,274.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x636e…579abacked Yes | 17c | 17,066$2,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,911.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449a…68a4backed Yes | 25c | 15,814$3,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,904.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 66c | 15,800$10,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,409 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…1dfabacked Yes | 53c | 14,695$7,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,722.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed Yes | 20c | 13,459$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670.19 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…a875backed No | 43c | 13,081$5,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,520.87 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +6.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes | 0c | 12,245$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…645bbacked No | 41c | 10,882$4,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,455.64 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…868abacked Yes | 28c | 10,747$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…75a7backed Yes | 10c | 10,642$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,540$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 43c | 10,318$4,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,394.24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 3c | 10,171$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.79 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…5afcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 24c | 10,000$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.48 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…001bbacked Yes | 4c | 9,658$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +599.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 42c | 9,558$4,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,554.35 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 15c | 9,013$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.89 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…1adebacked Yes | 52c | 9,010$4,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,693.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…b61fbacked No | 54c | 8,883$4,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,115.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886a…17b6backed Yes | 0c | 8,798$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3f…86aebacked Yes | 75c | 8,763$6,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,570.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 67c | 8,644$5,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,876.8 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6eb…88a8backed Yes | 30c | 7,789$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 40c | 7,371$2,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,398.67 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…3315backed No | 70c | 7,257$5,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 45c | 7,227$3,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,243.44 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…642abacked Yes | 37c | 7,003$2,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,613.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc211…d061backed Yes | 1c | 6,694$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 6,559$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.7 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 47c | 6,205$2,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,317.52 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,153$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.79 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…1b61backed No | 24c | 6,098$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,659.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb751…8d99backed Yes | 60c | 6,007$3,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,618.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…8ea1backed Yes | 3c | 5,812$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 17c | 5,512$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,554.1 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…8151backed Yes | 4c | 5,360$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…62e6backed Yes | 47c | 5,299$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048d…27abbacked Yes | 38c | 5,222$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…1d3abacked No | 20c | 5,000$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,007.01 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 53c | 4,935$2,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.23 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7c…14b0backed Yes | 8c | 4,935$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f65…1679backed No | 40c | 4,910$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,961.81 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53f5…28dcbacked Yes | 5c | 4,867$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…a281backed Yes | 1c | 4,840$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…76f5backed No | 40c | 4,828$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,892.48 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +263.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 80c | 4,583$3,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.08 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3c…a73cbacked Yes | 13c | 4,567$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…39ebbacked Yes | 60c | 4,500$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2c…5341backed Yes | 61c | 4,500$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…e2c5backed Yes | 31c | 4,450$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 50c | 4,417$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.33 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…a0efbacked Yes | 14c | 4,286$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2992…d25dbacked No | 72c | 4,165$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 29c | 4,000$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.58 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda76…1013backed Yes | 7c | 3,942$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…d9e7backed Yes | 60c | 3,934$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4b…2dafbacked Yes | 49c | 3,824$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370d…b2acbacked Yes | 6c | 3,697$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 3,635$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…e68abacked No | 51c | 3,600$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaae…3c3dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,582$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c3…e590backed Yes | 58c | 3,558$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…9845backed No | 75c | 3,500$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 28c | 3,500$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.98 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…f2a8backed No | 61c | 3,494$2,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaf…8ae7backed No | 32c | 3,454$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49aa…65c3backed Yes | 70c | 3,439$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…4899backed No | 78c | 3,409$2,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa6…6d00backed No | 47c | 3,407$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…821dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,398$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…635ebacked Yes | 30c | 3,351$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…50ffbacked No | 47c | 3,350$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…d73ebacked Yes | 60c | 3,350$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 29c | 3,333$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,377.52 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…c3ffbacked No | 56c | 3,312$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…24ebbacked No | 55c | 3,265$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,260$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,204$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 3,192$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.69 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…7788backed Yes | 80c | 3,166$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,532.42 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 59c | 3,159$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.66 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…7a29backed No | 54c | 3,133$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 76c | 3,106$2,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.06 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes | 65c | 3,087$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…1f6abacked No | 67c | 3,075$2,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…cde2backed Yes | 2c | 3,029$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ed…40b1backed No | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…ffcabacked No | 73c | 3,000$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d8…289ebacked Yes | 61c | 2,947$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.