TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,812,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,812,452 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,038 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3107…a26fbacked Yes7c57,928$4,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,181.4180%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d59…64dfbacked Yes0c46,690$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes0c41,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes3c35,133$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.687919%15 W · 64 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd744…526fbacked Yes32c34,059$10,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,938.94944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+223.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes32c21,790$6,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,909.342934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e3d…93febacked Yes5c21,032$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f73…17b6backed Yes12c18,473$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,274.6260%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x636e…579abacked Yes17c17,066$2,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,911.9450%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x449a…68a4backed Yes25c15,814$3,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,904.471136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-48.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No66c15,800$10,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4097759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13a7…1dfabacked Yes53c14,695$7,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,722.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed Yes20c13,459$2,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,670.195135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1398…a875backed No43c13,081$5,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,520.8713100%13 W · 0 L+6.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+129.3%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes0c12,245$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.88837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7472…645bbacked No41c10,882$4,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,455.642360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf39…868abacked Yes28c10,747$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f4c…75a7backed Yes10c10,642$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c10,540$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.022061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes43c10,318$4,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,394.242416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-74.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes3c10,171$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.791428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81b…5afcbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes24c10,000$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,402.484520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4cb…001bbacked Yes4c9,658$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.061030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+599.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No42c9,558$4,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,554.359645.8%44 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes15c9,013$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.89180%0 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe315…1adebacked Yes52c9,010$4,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,693.840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42d6…b61fbacked No54c8,883$4,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,115.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x886a…17b6backed Yes0c8,798$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3f…86aebacked Yes75c8,763$6,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,570.581060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed No67c8,644$5,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.85541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes0c8,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6eb…88a8backed Yes30c7,789$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,336.730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No40c7,371$2,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,398.6712840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x571a…3315backed No70c7,257$5,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.762157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes45c7,227$3,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,243.447021.4%15 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked Yes37c7,003$2,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,613.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc211…d061backed Yes1c6,694$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c6,559$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.73283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No47c6,205$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,317.527240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c6,153$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.791712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbe5a…1b61backed No24c6,098$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,659.851241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb751…8d99backed Yes60c6,007$3,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,618.461323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-63.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e2d…8ea1backed Yes3c5,812$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…6a5cbacked No17c5,512$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,554.14839.6%19 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ac…8151backed Yes4c5,360$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.7860%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb980…62e6backed Yes47c5,299$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x048d…27abbacked Yes38c5,222$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5503262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7814…1d3abacked No20c5,000$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,007.014100%4 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+234.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked No53c4,935$2,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,302.232466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f7c…14b0backed Yes8c4,935$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.890%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f65…1679backed No40c4,910$1,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.811776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+34%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x53f5…28dcbacked Yes5c4,867$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2213…a281backed Yes1c4,840$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e6d…76f5backed No40c4,828$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.482941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+263.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed No80c4,583$3,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.083650%18 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3c…a73cbacked Yes13c4,567$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.1130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bcc…39ebbacked Yes60c4,500$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b2c…5341backed Yes61c4,500$2,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,745955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43c6…e2c5backed Yes31c4,450$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa9…4baabacked No50c4,417$2,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.336240.3%25 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdab3…a0efbacked Yes14c4,286$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2992…d25dbacked No72c4,165$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes29c4,000$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.5815539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda76…1013backed Yes7c3,942$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca99…d9e7backed Yes60c3,934$2,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,367.991717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad4b…2dafbacked Yes49c3,824$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x370d…b2acbacked Yes6c3,697$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c3,635$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.052541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f7…e68abacked No51c3,600$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcaae…3c3dbacked Yes22c3,582$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.2330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00c3…e590backed Yes58c3,558$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x937e…9845backed No75c3,500$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.993100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes28c3,500$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.9810320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x762e…f2a8backed No61c3,494$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeaf…8ae7backed No32c3,454$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,332.91911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49aa…65c3backed Yes70c3,439$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f7…4899backed No78c3,409$2,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.01966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa6…6d00backed No47c3,407$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.15650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9825…821dbacked Yes3c3,398$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x926d…635ebacked Yes30c3,351$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked No47c3,350$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.11926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe058…d73ebacked Yes60c3,350$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0102548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No29c3,333$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.5211833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e5…c3ffbacked No56c3,312$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.55366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bd…24ebbacked No55c3,265$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.71580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c3,260$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.47766.6%5 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes2c3,204$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3211124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c3,192$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.692442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e08…7788backed Yes80c3,166$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.423426.5%9 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No59c3,159$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.6620551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0395…7a29backed No54c3,133$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.89560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No76c3,106$2,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.0615941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes65c3,087$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00060%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4027…1f6abacked No67c3,075$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.592259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ee3…cde2backed Yes2c3,029$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ed…40b1backed No38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.99475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+127.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2ff…ffcabacked No73c3,000$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+68%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d8…289ebacked Yes61c2,947$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.81850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.