Token Launches · resolved market
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4d7d4d8d3f760886310e5ec99e2f343c9efde0a87b42a84d190f78e2c837bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,063,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,063,602 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed No | 2c | 59,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…094fbacked No | 0c | 50,167$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 2c | 47,543$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.28 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb47…28b5backed No | 1c | 44,899$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…2be4backed No | 2c | 28,293$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.12 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 24,629$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.52 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21d…5942backed No | 5c | 22,094$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 21,677$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.97 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…716bbacked No | 0c | 20,851$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed No | 2c | 20,559$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked No | 1c | 18,986$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.01 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…23a8backed No | 2c | 18,274$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 2c | 16,611$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.52 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked No | 0c | 16,514$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…1a38backed No | 1c | 16,389$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked No | 2c | 15,000$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aff…7035backed No | 1c | 13,270$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…c3c4backed No | 2c | 11,720$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf9…c81bbacked No | 1c | 11,297$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 1c | 10,642$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 1c | 9,999$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…03fdbacked No | 2c | 9,929$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 9,300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 2c | 8,590$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.27 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…cb5cbacked No | 1c | 8,350$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…e7a5backed No | 2c | 8,333$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…0540backed No | 1c | 8,181$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 2c | 8,098$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4806…7ac9backed No | 3c | 8,052$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…df0abacked No | 1c | 7,444$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8413…1674backed No | 2c | 6,741$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…a375backed No | 3c | 6,566$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 1c | 6,545$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…aaa3backed No | 2c | 6,544$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 6,448$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 1c | 6,430$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 6,375$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 6,119$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.02 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…9b68backed No | 2c | 6,032$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 0c | 6,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 1c | 6,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6767…5facbacked No | 1c | 5,907$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…261dbacked No | 0c | 5,812$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…b52abacked No | 2c | 5,705$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 2c | 5,577$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 2c | 5,518$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 2c | 5,446$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa707…0ef0backed No | 2c | 5,207$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…1450backed No | 1c | 5,174$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0316…2bfdbacked No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60bb…a448backed No | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…59b1backed No | 2c | 5,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 3c | 5,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…ae10backed No | 1c | 4,971$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed No | 1c | 4,597$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…2dd4backed No | 1c | 4,345$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…96b6backed No | 1c | 3,749$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…dce4backed No | 1c | 3,482$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 1c | 3,049$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…5dc2backed No | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked No | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…ce3bbacked No | 2c | 3,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…bb86backed No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 1c | 2,998$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa323…e0eebacked No | 1c | 2,875$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 1c | 2,864$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a57…bb1abacked No | 1c | 2,847$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed No | 2c | 2,841$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 2,795$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 1c | 2,751$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53d…4346backed No | 1c | 2,715$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bd…1c2fbacked No | 1c | 2,643$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 2c | 2,586$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…3eedbacked No | 4c | 2,537$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…9076backed No | 3c | 2,532$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…d1dfbacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf849…ff55backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…5e3ebacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…db0dbacked No | 1c | 2,489$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 1c | 2,231$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91fb…6f69backed No | 2c | 2,209$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f68…3e9cbacked No | 2c | 2,143$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…169ebacked No | 2c | 2,134$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 0c | 2,087$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…36c4backed No | 1c | 2,010$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…4572backed No | 1c | 1,920$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…9a89backed No | 1c | 1,914$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9071…7c0abacked No | 1c | 1,874$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…ccc7backed No | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…d43ebacked No | 2c | 1,774$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5c…aaf7backed No | 3c | 1,768$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 2c | 1,767$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f9…dce7backed No | 1c | 1,732$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed No | 2c | 1,676$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.