Token Launches · resolved market
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b86f8d7116a635912beff1e82e67e6658c31b6bf41ca9895a67e183e33e4fe4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $362,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $362,314 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3107…a26fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,231$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf7…31bebacked Yes | 0c | 6,414$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,234$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d14…7930backed Yes | 0c | 6,224$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x960f…56d2backed Yes | 0c | 6,214$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…6f05backed Yes | 6c | 5,673$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…f113backed Yes | 0c | 5,247$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…b43dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,232$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba8…ba31backed Yes | 0c | 5,232$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b8…d3e9backed Yes | 0c | 5,232$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…33febacked Yes | 0c | 5,232$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…6e02backed Yes | 0c | 5,232$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc821…6a7ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,738$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…d9e7backed Yes | 3c | 2,557$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…0c81backed Yes | 2c | 2,323$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,293$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Yes | 1c | 2,116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,071$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 8c | 1,979$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,969$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…3f88backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,710$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1503…b732backed Yes | 5c | 1,670$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,669$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…caecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,651$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,425$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,407$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,298$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 1c | 1,247$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,091$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…ee17backed Yes | 17c | 1,008$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.71 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -7.3wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 5c | 957.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 914.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 869.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 813.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 6c | 790.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…dbc3backed Yes | 7c | 742$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 737.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607f…383cbacked Yes | 7c | 699.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 596.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…8151backed Yes | 8c | 539.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…169ebacked Yes | 4c | 534.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…5339backed Yes | 11c | 518$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61df…e103backed Yes | 4c | 508.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 502.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64b…e382backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85de…3717backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d5…4096backed Yes | 8c | 460.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…608cbacked Yes | 6c | 436.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Yes | 7c | 400.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…61eebacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…bfd6backed Yes | 11c | 323.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…22f3backed Yes | 11c | 316$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…aa6ebacked Yes | 8c | 309.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Yes | 8c | 268.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…c6cabacked Yes | 7c | 239.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316a…1f03backed Yes | 9c | 230.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb52c…127abacked Yes | 19c | 229$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8121…7626backed Yes | 34c | 214.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa5…427abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…a073backed Yes | 12c | 182.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 6c | 163$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 162.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…1b61backed No | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 79c | 158.28$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…5749backed Yes | 19c | 156$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…8b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…ffcabacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004d…7b1dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 99.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…6afdbacked Yes | 19c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…7ec2backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?this page
- Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.