Token Launches · resolved market
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18f567a409408e1156962dd898425faf5ab7236606714389169d8a5a0d973ecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,041 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 1c | 12,010$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 0c | 6,599$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 0c | 4,624$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…201ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,445$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 16c | 2,191$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.92 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 9c | 2,182$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 5c | 1,982$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6801…7030backed Yes | 17c | 1,885$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,505$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9373…9014backed Yes | 1c | 1,397$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,392$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 78c | 1,190$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.92 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked No | 80c | 956.75$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…3a79backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 6c | 903.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 817$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 8c | 614.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad27…9a7bbacked Yes | 15c | 611.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 577.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…2417backed Yes | 18c | 548.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 492.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…a4cebacked Yes | 6c | 430.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c21…64fabacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…2fa4backed Yes | 25c | 393.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 12c | 387.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 363.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70d…4705backed Yes | 15c | 328.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fb…63cabacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Yes | 8c | 256.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…5afcbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…deb7backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…1ed2backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Yes | 16c | 139.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691c…e0aabacked Yes | 14c | 131.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…39b6backed Yes | 16c | 124.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…5f12backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes | 9c | 119.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…a467backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…0528backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…821dbacked Yes | 20c | 88.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 86.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…c0c4backed Yes | 25c | 81.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…adcdbacked Yes | 25c | 76.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +91%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…0b92backed Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…54a7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.