TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf237…46ed

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST2133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2026 NBA All-Star: Player to hit half-court shot?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$77.65
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.6
Will Carter Bryant win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$15.36
Will Keshad Johnson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+139.7%+$40.21
Will Devin Booker win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$13.52
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+59%+$51.95
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Damian Lillard win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+440.1%+$61.04
Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+98%+$19.8
Pelicans vs. Nets: O/U 226.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$15.9
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+82.7%+$28.93
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Hornets vs. Cavaliersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$40.41
Bulls vs. Cavaliersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$10.31
Nets vs. Celticsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$17
Warriors vs. Cavaliersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$24
Bucks vs. Knicksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$14
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$35
Jazz vs. Bucksbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Timberwolves vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$14.99
All 21 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.49
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.5
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.56
Over $5M committed to the Bitway public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$56.8
Over $7M committed to the Bitway public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$16.4
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$21.7
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+70.9%+$85.08
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+127.3%+$32.02
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+138.1%+$58
HumidiFi FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$122.47
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.54
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$758Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+35%+$265.53
Will Binance list another Pump.fun coin in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 16 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-74.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Usyk vs. Fury have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will Usyk beat Fury?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+85.2%+$76.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Mls — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Colorado Rapids SC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$41.76
FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+62.7%+$17.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oregon vs. Washingtonbacked Washington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine beat Georgia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$31.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 23.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$11.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.