Token Launches · resolved market
Over $5M committed to the Bitway public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c799ea2ad98993f18f07b2d708e6a82a9c173725f37ee72713ddfb19fbc164b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed No | 29c | 2,384$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.17 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +340.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed Yes | 69c | 2,300$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…0fb9backed No | 62c | 2,265$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.48 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 74c | 1,289$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.81 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…a996backed No | 39c | 1,268$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.5 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +119%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1e6abacked Yes | 35c | 1,104$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,087$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.2 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fb…20adbacked Yes | 31c | 955.56$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 852.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7f…f02fbacked Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…46e6backed Yes | 60c | 695$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 6c | 686.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed Yes | 20c | 681.39$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.17 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 679.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 79c | 601.14$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.94 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…e8abbacked Yes | 49c | 545.48$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4f…a442backed No | 75c | 505.95$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.49 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 415.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…beb3backed Yes | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 399.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 310.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 38c | 263.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed No | 49c | 203.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…573ebacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 50c | 198.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 22c | 190.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd526…03abbacked Yes | 7c | 185$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Yes | 8c | 155.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Yes | 44c | 130.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf408…b738backed Yes | 26c | 128.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked No | 36c | 109.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf4…2e25backed Yes | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…ab1cbacked Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 33c | 40.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 40c | 34.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed No | 44c | 33.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…85cdbacked Yes | 50c | 32.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 76c | 20.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $5M committed to the Bitway public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the Bitway public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
- Over $7M committed to the Bitway public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.