TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x36e7…46e6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
101
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT4163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$274.77
MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$723Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$310.2
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$480
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$470
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$387.57
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$529
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,292Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$2,194.4
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$119.46
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$622Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$622.01
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$736Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$736.25
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$566Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+130.3%+$737.53
Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$474Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+51.4%+$243.69
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+425.7%+$648.62
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+40.8%+$75.71
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+71.1%+$284.26
Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$190
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$552.89
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+63.9%+$62.4
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+98.7%+$280.6
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+25%+$200
Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$87.68
Over $5M committed to the Bitway public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$417
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+44.9%+$9.3
Will Trove launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$713Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+26.2%+$186.9
Over $20M committed to the Space public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+394.1%+$444.24
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-44.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$141.32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,022Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,022.49
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,005Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,004.98
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$751Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$751.43
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$796Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$796.07
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$176.19
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+150%+$375
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+96.1%+$133.62
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$320.25
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 27m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$215.09
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+26.6%+$210
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$255.95
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 129m and 143m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.46
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+45.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+53.7%+$247.27
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$55
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.76
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$35.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Pasika UA (BO3)backed Pasika UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$690Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$689.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$106.04
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.