Token Launches · resolved market
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10099ccc8a9796144959d1d79fbbf64e754f0bc15dcd095e69399aaeb7c4321d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 10c | 10,827$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.75 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x001e…b3afbacked Yes | 21c | 7,840$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…7314backed No | 79c | 7,500$5,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 2c | 7,250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.95 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…e9fbbacked No | 69c | 6,120$4,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,725$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 31c | 4,861$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…422fbacked Yes | 32c | 4,033$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed Yes | 39c | 3,567$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…1345backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…1f44backed No | 58c | 3,000$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,395$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Yes | 30c | 2,366$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.36 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,243$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…46c0backed Yes | 29c | 2,115$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…b892backed Yes | 2c | 2,113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…4ac0backed No | 37c | 2,018$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +136%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…285abacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8382…f44ebacked No | 77c | 1,683$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 2c | 1,682$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7092…be48backed No | 39c | 1,627$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…0082backed No | 31c | 1,568$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked No | 66c | 1,518$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.67 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…596fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,454$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…bf25backed Yes | 18c | 1,405$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,376$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,367$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.6 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…20aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,356$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…4fe9backed Yes | 3c | 1,313$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…b5b6backed Yes | 4c | 1,280$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,251$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,173$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 76c | 1,167$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.48 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…91f0backed No | 71c | 1,138$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed Yes | 1c | 1,130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +507.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…be5abacked No | 22c | 1,032$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 1,017$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070e…52d9backed Yes | 66c | 990.11$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a1…8f8dbacked Yes | 43c | 985.37$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe268…12aabacked Yes | 51c | 977.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…8475backed No | 72c | 928.74$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 14c | 913.39$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 36c | 899.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…df61backed Yes | 17c | 861.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…82cabacked Yes | 5c | 800$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 3c | 762.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 31c | 737.89$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.56 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…609abacked Yes | 3c | 733.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 726.42$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.47 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 710.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 65c | 699.97$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.99 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 681.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ac…557cbacked No | 73c | 680.43$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…2d84backed No | 57c | 645.8$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +237.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 7c | 625.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea6…135fbacked Yes | 3c | 574.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 559.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 43c | 550.66$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked Yes | 21c | 524.85$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a0…2b60backed Yes | 57c | 523.52$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 28c | 516.46$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.06 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…af7abacked No | 57c | 510.76$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…13edbacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…1e41backed Yes | 78c | 500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…0841backed No | 35c | 493.8$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.97 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 45c | 484.88$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ced…1f21backed No | 78c | 481.07$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4317…41cebacked Yes | 31c | 480.01$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc28…b541backed Yes | 43c | 465.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 32c | 450$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac2…ea15backed Yes | 25c | 427.55$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…b8ffbacked Yes | 8c | 414.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 40c | 404$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de5…c008backed No | 74c | 403.38$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…2281backed No | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a82…49e9backed No | 68c | 399.98$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…5aecbacked Yes | 44c | 398.52$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 60c | 387.6$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.3 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…ee81backed Yes | 26c | 384.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…9da6backed No | 73c | 384.05$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 3c | 362.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 54c | 350.12$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.67 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 28c | 342.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Yes | 60c | 341.7$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…97afbacked Yes | 59c | 340$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 337.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…7956backed Yes | 27c | 316.07$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed Yes | 39c | 310.46$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84da…0a03backed Yes | 46c | 305.05$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.59 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…0613backed Yes | 26c | 303.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…eb7cbacked No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…ce76backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…e677backed Yes | 26c | 298.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?this page
- Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.