TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$210,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,673

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,139 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd588…cec0backed Yes10c10,827$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.758521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes0c10,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001e…b3afbacked Yes21c7,840$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…7314backed No79c7,500$5,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed Yes2c7,250$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.955712.3%7 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe99a…e9fbbacked No69c6,120$4,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.521850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes2c5,725$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.596836.8%25 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes31c4,861$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50215941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa3…422fbacked Yes32c4,033$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.06520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-69.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3499…2858backed Yes39c3,567$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.551526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-43.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe6fc…1345backed Yes1c3,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…1f44backed No58c3,000$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+123.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c2,395$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.647663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Yes30c2,366$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.362429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c2,243$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.212333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc212…46c0backed Yes29c2,115$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc67e…b892backed Yes2c2,113$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e8…4ac0backed No37c2,018$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+136%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x784a…285abacked Yes4c2,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8382…f44ebacked No77c1,683$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.051241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yes2c1,682$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1914437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7092…be48backed No39c1,627$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6528…0082backed No31c1,568$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.333100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+181.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ee1…16debacked No66c1,518$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.673745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+42.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x443f…596fbacked Yes25c1,454$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1096…bf25backed Yes18c1,405$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c1,376$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.082442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1edd…be0fbacked Yes30c1,367$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.62218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0a2…20aebacked Yes3c1,356$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed No76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…4fe9backed Yes3c1,313$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.011520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4457…b5b6backed Yes4c1,280$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes5c1,251$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,173$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.573283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes76c1,167$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.4819543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8a…91f0backed No71c1,138$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.41450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf944…c249backed Yes1c1,130$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31040%4 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+507.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd98…be5abacked No22c1,032$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.24580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes2c1,017$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed Yes75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7503930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x070e…52d9backed Yes66c990.11$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.4540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4a1…8f8dbacked Yes43c985.37$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe268…12aabacked Yes51c977.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-74.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb492…8475backed No72c928.74$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.04955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes14c913.39$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4215539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes36c899.99$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3206123%14 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1821…df61backed Yes17c861.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c800$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.11243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c7…82cabacked Yes5c800$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes3c762.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9813023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Yes31c737.89$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.563256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x968e…609abacked Yes3c733.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked No76c726.42$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.474050%20 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c710.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.642094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed No65c699.97$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.991384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick66cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c681.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.542541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ac…557cbacked No73c680.43$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x999c…2d84backed No57c645.8$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+237.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes7c625.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.33619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Yes3c574.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes4c559.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.381122.7%3 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed Yes43c550.66$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.561442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked Yes21c524.85$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.925347.2%25 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33a0…2b60backed Yes57c523.52$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe5…a206backed Yes28c516.46$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.064327.9%12 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3cd…af7abacked No57c510.76$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.731172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c78…13edbacked Yes4c500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-69.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5b…1e41backed Yes78c500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x129b…24c4backed No58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2105851.7%30 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24f8…0841backed No35c493.8$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.972718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe267…86e4backed Yes45c484.88$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205149%25 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ced…1f21backed No78c481.07$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.083729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4317…41cebacked Yes31c480.01$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc28…b541backed Yes43c465.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed Yes32c450$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.791850%9 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac2…ea15backed Yes25c427.55$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.522245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa616…b8ffbacked Yes8c414.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes40c404$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16113134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1de5…c008backed No74c403.38$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.38771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23250%16 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0165…2281backed No55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801050%5 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a82…49e9backed No68c399.98$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.99683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+50.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91e1…5aecbacked Yes44c398.52$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.731637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No60c387.6$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.320551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec96…ee81backed Yes26c384.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…9da6backed No73c384.05$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.244161%25 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7243…942abacked Yes3c362.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No54c350.12$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.673060%18 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes28c342.19$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.068528.2%24 W · 61 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcba8…11a2backed Yes60c341.7$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.761154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfab…97afbacked Yes59c340$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.62528%7 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c337.86$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1935712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda4a…7956backed Yes27c316.07$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed Yes39c310.46$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84da…0a03backed Yes46c305.05$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.594050%20 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26c3…0613backed Yes26c303.46$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5633…eb7cbacked No60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f9e…ce76backed Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb885…e677backed Yes26c298.67$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.82352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+112.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.