Token Launches · resolved market
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceeb5ccf0605d035f5e4410ad1323e9c6a365d3ad9a51d10ad49629417a1a785
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $311,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $362,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 2c | 12,563$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.25 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d7…554ebacked Yes | 6c | 10,267$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b70…32fabacked Yes | 30c | 7,934$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd66…0919backed Yes | 45c | 7,847$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…bfadbacked Yes | 31c | 6,847$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 8c | 6,117$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.93 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…df61backed Yes | 9c | 5,793$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 14c | 5,498$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.52 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,356$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,715$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.65 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 3,542$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 79c | 3,300$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 50c | 3,057$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.67 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed No | 68c | 2,915$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.64 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,909$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.78 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 62c | 2,909$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.61 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 70c | 2,880$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.26 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,721$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…20aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,706$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 20c | 2,521$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.73 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…0c73backed Yes | 18c | 2,413$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…a5cbbacked Yes | 0c | 2,323$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…720ebacked No | 54c | 2,302$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +270.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 18c | 2,262$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.07 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec31…ce23backed Yes | 33c | 2,090$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…2c6fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,063$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092b…8d73backed Yes | 44c | 2,053$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 2,039$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67c…d1dcbacked Yes | 30c | 2,026$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…13edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…ee81backed Yes | 5c | 1,954$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…3f46backed Yes | 1c | 1,908$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Yes | 17c | 1,868$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 19c | 1,839$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.85 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c45…1804backed Yes | 9c | 1,699$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 65c | 1,636$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.35 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,470$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4317…41cebacked Yes | 7c | 1,447$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed Yes | 22c | 1,390$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…66a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,328$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…ad5cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,245$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…660fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,237$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 74c | 1,200$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.37 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,194$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…df41backed Yes | 19c | 1,072$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 11c | 1,048$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 4c | 1,040$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 32c | 1,026$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,016$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…0184backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…439bbacked Yes | 5c | 999.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3919…10aebacked Yes | 20c | 984.6$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 2c | 950.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ecf7backed No | 74c | 950$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 934.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 884.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b49…b927backed Yes | 22c | 875.48$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bf…033ebacked Yes | 30c | 858.55$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 21c | 840$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…339dbacked Yes | 7c | 837.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…6924backed No | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…474ebacked No | 73c | 794.86$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…cd44backed Yes | 13c | 760.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 759.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…c0d3backed No | 67c | 745.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 68c | 731.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.74 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…4434backed Yes | 32c | 705$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.65 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…2e92backed Yes | 14c | 646.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.71 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…9e76backed Yes | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c31…d94cbacked No | 74c | 600$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 25c | 596.75$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.51 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 546.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…b8ffbacked Yes | 13c | 504.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…36fdbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x131b…2d3cbacked Yes | 22c | 499.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…782bbacked Yes | 19c | 499.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 21c | 484$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 17c | 483.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 25c | 436.24$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 77c | 434.52$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 29c | 420.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.43 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 4c | 411.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…7014backed No | 78c | 401.57$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…b1e2backed Yes | 15c | 397.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcd…7865backed No | 75c | 397$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6377…1174backed Yes | 25c | 396.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…1dc9backed Yes | 6c | 390$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…56a2backed Yes | 27c | 389$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…c5c4backed No | 75c | 369.38$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3d…18dfbacked Yes | 30c | 358$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 345.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 19c | 343$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…2510backed Yes | 32c | 320.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 11c | 310$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…eb5cbacked Yes | 3c | 305.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?this page
- Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.