Token Launches · resolved market
Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb003b1966a026f0a39fc687ff651cd274d37b2a91c6a5cdacffe5034b1c7b2ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 1c | 41,086$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.59 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…285abacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 3c | 5,969$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,551$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…ee81backed Yes | 3c | 3,129$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…13edbacked Yes | 2c | 2,732$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 2c | 2,476$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x092b…8d73backed Yes | 14c | 2,192$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,701$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,510$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed Yes | 2c | 1,344$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,104$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 2c | 1,048$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 16c | 1,022$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.52 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd66…0919backed Yes | 18c | 981.47$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed Yes | 15c | 980.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 739.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 7c | 555.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…782bbacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 11c | 499.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…b1e2backed Yes | 3c | 495.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 393.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…e7d0backed No | 80c | 332.5$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 8c | 320$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1006…0611backed Yes | 7c | 304.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 11c | 299.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 7c | 276.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 16c | 221$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes | 15c | 197$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 15c | 169$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83e…b11bbacked Yes | 9c | 167.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 16c | 159$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 16c | 127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 16c | 126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 14c | 119$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed Yes | 15c | 114$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 16c | 106$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed Yes | 16c | 101$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +241%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7602backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…e387backed Yes | 14c | 81.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 15c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch?this page
- Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.