Token Launches · resolved market
Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb2538e3d5d911643b51e824d8e4f3225fc7688bc3fbcd7af6b639eba8d2f245
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 1c | 35,176$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,463$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…ee81backed Yes | 2c | 10,037$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 7,193$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d7…554ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,784$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 4c | 3,664$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked Yes | 0c | 3,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed Yes | 5c | 2,093$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,938$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…5578backed Yes | 1c | 1,871$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 5c | 1,821$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,583$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…13edbacked Yes | 1c | 1,525$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…df61backed Yes | 3c | 1,516$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…4578backed Yes | 16c | 992$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 934$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 827.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…ce82backed Yes | 16c | 808.83$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 7c | 599.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 589.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1006…0611backed Yes | 4c | 543.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…782bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 418.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed Yes | 16c | 411$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6797backed Yes | 16c | 337$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 327.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 15c | 282$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a2…27edbacked Yes | 4c | 274.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd66…0919backed Yes | 8c | 236.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes | 16c | 212$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 15c | 189$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec31…ce23backed Yes | 23c | 166.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…3734backed Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 15c | 145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 15c | 136$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…e925backed Yes | 9c | 129.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.