Token Launches · resolved market
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd21ca201f1a5013b6a2afb82ae685bc5805986d9a62ad8a2529a147f38d64d52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $801,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $861,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $801,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 628 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6d7…554ebacked Yes | 9c | 23,717$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…4ac0backed No | 36c | 17,856$6,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,432.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +136%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 0c | 15,786$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ee…4469backed No | 49c | 14,740$7,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,537.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 9c | 14,734$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.29 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…cf38backed No | 34c | 14,731$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,731.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bf…033ebacked Yes | 61c | 13,380$8,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 36c | 11,735$4,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,168.75 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…b3b6backed No | 46c | 11,572$5,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,298.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 46c | 10,333$4,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,779.76 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…cbcfbacked No | 50c | 9,931$4,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,976.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…720ebacked No | 47c | 8,873$4,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,716.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +270.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec31…ce23backed Yes | 62c | 8,832$5,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,468.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 27c | 8,387$2,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.55 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…04a3backed Yes | 0c | 8,209$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc5…67b3backed Yes | 53c | 8,188$4,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,333.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 9c | 7,939$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.4 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,875$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,855$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d0…154fbacked Yes | 70c | 7,740$5,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,391.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd66…0919backed Yes | 65c | 7,649$4,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,937.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67c…d1dcbacked Yes | 71c | 7,427$5,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,256.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a9a9backed Yes | 53c | 7,273$3,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,833.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…0a3cbacked No | 59c | 7,191$4,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…eb07backed Yes | 50c | 7,060$3,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,530.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…a229backed No | 48c | 6,840$3,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,558.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59e…7bf6backed No | 52c | 6,737$3,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,246.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4957…4705backed No | 33c | 6,596$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,394 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +199.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…bfadbacked No | 40c | 6,127$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,652.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa22…11b9backed Yes | 65c | 5,675$3,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,671.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…0c95backed Yes | 53c | 5,626$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,997.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…a7ecbacked Yes | 69c | 5,460$3,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,793.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7092…be48backed No | 46c | 5,445$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,945.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 63c | 5,410$3,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,428.39 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 5,190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…3733backed No | 42c | 4,873$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,806.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…c2f4backed No | 34c | 4,819$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,173.15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 54c | 4,488$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.93 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…64d7backed Yes | 70c | 4,310$3,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,017 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b70…32fabacked Yes | 67c | 4,103$2,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,752.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…b5b6backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…bbc7backed No | 44c | 3,871$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.89 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc628…54f0backed No | 31c | 3,500$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.99 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…981abacked Yes | 26c | 3,350$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 73c | 3,348$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.15 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 36c | 3,190$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.57 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1aafbacked Yes | 1c | 3,116$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…46c0backed Yes | 16c | 3,081$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 57c | 2,867$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.62 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4317…41cebacked Yes | 10c | 2,780$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…285abacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 34c | 2,472$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.91 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 45c | 2,380$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,380$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…df61backed Yes | 41c | 2,302$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…1e41backed Yes | 63c | 2,260$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 5c | 2,227$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…8e34backed Yes | 23c | 2,210$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Yes | 43c | 2,169$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.22 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d81…01f4backed Yes | 58c | 2,163$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…a144backed Yes | 67c | 2,157$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…0082backed No | 48c | 2,105$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed No | 30c | 2,000$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed Yes | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…91f0backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daa…af3fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,927$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…9db0backed No | 43c | 1,900$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,892$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…504fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,879$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes | 51c | 1,863$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.08 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff98…32f7backed Yes | 70c | 1,832$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…5d9ebacked Yes | 59c | 1,783$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 37c | 1,739$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.28 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,716$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…4c26backed No | 29c | 1,700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…f5cfbacked Yes | 60c | 1,671$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,600$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 49c | 1,599$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.58 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…955dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,586$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 55c | 1,506$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.88 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 47c | 1,480$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.38 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked No | 64c | 1,470$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c45…1804backed Yes | 21c | 1,413$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed No | 37c | 1,400$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.99 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,387$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…b993backed No | 43c | 1,320$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 52c | 1,253$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…bf25backed Yes | 64c | 1,245$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 51c | 1,238$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.77 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 35c | 1,235$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 40c | 1,230$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 54c | 1,212$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.53 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…91c8backed Yes | 41c | 1,187$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.6 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 27c | 1,178$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.08 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked No | 68c | 1,164$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,138$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?this page
- Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.