TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5a9c…c336

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Movies, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 59 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT1838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.26
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+124.7%+$23.71
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$67.04
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.65
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.18
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+60.3%+$19.68
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.33
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$70.51
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.69
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+150%+$17.28
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$6.04
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.17
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.11
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.34
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+275.8%+$44.41
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.06
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.8
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
All 18 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-50.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$551Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+33.2%+$182.8
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,354Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,354.32
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+100%+$37
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+259.8%+$161.65
Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$388.09
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$62.47
Will ETHGAS launch a token by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20.56
Will ETHGAS launch a token by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$51.94
Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$159.62
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$191.05
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$653Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$653.35
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$55.51
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$969.83
All 14 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.57
Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$29.3
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$52.93
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$68.33
Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+177.8%+$128
Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+56.8%+$127.55
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+122.2%+$38.5
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+114%+$74.57
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+67.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$9.8
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$79.7
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+238.5%+$54.96
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+191.9%+$99.24
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.44
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+52.5%+$154.57
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+121.3%+$228.48
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-48.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-66.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,517Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$2,183
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+100%+$99
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.74
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.