Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1abd61ad100d8895f3584b464ef167f3518e25a6030881103d14acc083ebad96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 66c | 10,963$7,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,726.59 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 3c | 4,986$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 46c | 4,115$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 75c | 1,825$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.27 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 61c | 1,030$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.19 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked No | 43c | 960$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.2 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 62c | 922.35$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.67 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 20c | 893.8$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.86 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…a74ebacked Yes | 57c | 683.02$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…7734backed No | 52c | 637.5$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 38c | 627.09$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.28 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 617$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 16c | 560$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.79 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed No | 43c | 457.75$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.73 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 65c | 396.96$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.73 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 63c | 370$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.5 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 75c | 343.11$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1811…789dbacked No | 43c | 330$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 50c | 326.76$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.96 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 56c | 308.66$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.72 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked No | 79c | 280$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.72 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 39c | 231.91$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 217.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.51 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 79c | 214.66$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 69c | 210.69$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 32c | 198$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.01 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc8…cd76backed No | 36c | 190$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd64…0029backed Yes | 53c | 189.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 189.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 69c | 167.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5c51backed Yes | 22c | 162$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 70c | 115.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 57c | 115.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 53c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 101.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c1…ac54backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 30c | 95.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…7acfbacked Yes | 15c | 89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…7005backed Yes | 36c | 78.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 30c | 77.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed No | 79c | 64.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 58.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe2…7f9bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 41c | 46.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 75c | 46.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…13a5backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…b8a7backed No | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e0…69edbacked No | 42c | 39.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd151…0a8abacked Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…5216backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 64c | 30.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…9146backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…85b5backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of January?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.