TailMyPicks
Market

Stocks · resolved market

Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,733 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes66c10,963$7,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,726.591,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked No3c4,986$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.591020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No46c4,115$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,885.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No75c1,825$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.2781240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes61c1,030$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.196361.9%39 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…043ebacked No43c960$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.22814.3%4 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No62c922.35$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.6799038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes20c893.8$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.864934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b0f…a74ebacked Yes57c683.02$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…7734backed No52c637.5$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.251758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes38c627.09$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.2860229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No13c617$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.914168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes16c560$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.793423.5%8 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2457071.4%50 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3fb…4a87backed No43c457.75$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.732544%11 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa78…f40bbacked No65c396.96$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7313751.1%70 W · 67 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No63c370$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.512360.2%74 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No75c343.11$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2569026.7%24 W · 66 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1811…789dbacked No43c330$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No50c326.76$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.9643838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No56c308.66$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.729324.7%23 W · 70 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd80a…d20ebacked No79c280$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.723129%9 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde63…46c2backed Yes39c231.91$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.811827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c217.66$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.511,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No79c214.66$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.664057.5%23 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed No69c210.69$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1455639.3%22 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a9c…c336backed Yes36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes32c198$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.015937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc8…cd76backed No36c190$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd64…0029backed Yes53c189.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes19c189.26$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6917049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb2…c640backed No69c167.9$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.844738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb37b…5c51backed Yes22c162$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes70c115.13$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1324356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Yes57c115.07$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.484146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x73ac…217cbacked No53c105$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.764238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No42c101.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2727429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4c1…ac54backed Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+207.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4886338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No30c95.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6410427.9%29 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad23…7acfbacked Yes15c89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+122.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x194a…7005backed Yes36c78.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.59955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No30c77.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.615131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x617a…b4f1backed No79c64.58$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.192010%2 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-85.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No64c58.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6422129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+116.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2648234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe2…7f9bbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes41c46.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4127338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed No75c46.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.115628.6%16 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe27e…13a5backed Yes46c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccdf…b8a7backed No36c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84e0…69edbacked No42c39.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd151…0a8abacked Yes28c39.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.29955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc1…5216backed Yes38c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.71266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes64c30.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.843135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-43.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22450%12 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x63da…9146backed Yes64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x029c…5137backed No74c26.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.87475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7960…85b5backed Yes62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.