Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07059ad87d5002d2586ccd1949479aad5d2c7f2ee34c5e95f2dd2ef3ab7d7199
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked No | 4c | 4,830$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.78 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 18c | 2,445$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.01 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 11c | 973.21$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.75 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 62c | 890$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.32 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 24c | 614.13$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.3 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 504.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 5c | 501.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 471.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 67c | 356.77$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.1 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…bd9abacked No | 79c | 354$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 275$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 10c | 147.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.85 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 21c | 145.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0830…78eebacked No | 77c | 135$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 22c | 131.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 29c | 110.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…599dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes | 18c | 76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 58c | 67.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 61c | 57.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…7734backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 45.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 62c | 44.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 37.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8623…9fadbacked No | 60c | 21.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 78c | 14.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of January?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.