Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1616ea61786f96c78127a6ab4356aee9c7eb14d5cc9d2d7f9039cfa4e18a143e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 34c | 715.83$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.77 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 709.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.45 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 6c | 631.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 23c | 629.58$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.91 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…a0c1backed Yes | 32c | 576$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked No | 68c | 527$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.27 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed No | 76c | 489.28$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 341$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 52c | 324.26$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 4c | 289.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.64 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 260.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed Yes | 64c | 258.21$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.04 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 20c | 244.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.11 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 76c | 242.54$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f8…f5eebacked Yes | 31c | 216.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf891…3e0bbacked No | 69c | 216.18$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…0f35backed Yes | 35c | 213.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7d…ad0dbacked No | 65c | 213.22$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 79c | 201.24$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…2a63backed Yes | 35c | 190.09$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…86c4backed No | 65c | 190.09$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 19c | 189.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…4cd9backed No | 68c | 183.2$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…c99dbacked Yes | 32c | 183.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 176.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…0743backed No | 68c | 173.72$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…110fbacked Yes | 32c | 173.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked Yes | 23c | 170$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.53 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 16c | 163.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…b70bbacked Yes | 17c | 155.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +167.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 41c | 155.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…02adbacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed Yes | 74c | 140$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 139.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 118$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 17c | 81.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 63.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 77c | 57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 73c | 54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…6bd8backed Yes | 41c | 49.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…0c89backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of January?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.