Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bab28a6f5075597847fb403af058162a9160f08892970974b6a7f092f53bbc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4424…4cc6backed No | 61c | 5,217$3,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 47c | 3,203$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.14 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 34c | 794.73$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.55 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 24c | 773.51$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.83 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 36c | 693.91$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.46 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 41c | 622.57$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.84 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 38c | 620.06$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.31 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…82b1backed No | 64c | 515.07$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 13c | 494.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 3c | 364.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 323.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 313.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 274.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 41c | 270.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 16c | 231.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 199.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd366…ffc3backed Yes | 19c | 157.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e28…d4aabacked No | 79c | 156.66$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…a85ebacked Yes | 21c | 156.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…86c4backed Yes | 14c | 131.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0e…0d48backed No | 79c | 130.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…31eabacked Yes | 21c | 130.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…9145backed Yes | 21c | 129.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…c5d2backed No | 79c | 129.76$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea3…0760backed Yes | 70c | 110$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 28c | 103$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b05…b43ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked Yes | 13c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…eca5backed No | 36c | 76.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…468bbacked Yes | 61c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…7158backed Yes | 76c | 72.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 23c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 25c | 45.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…13d8backed Yes | 47c | 42.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 37c | 42.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fc…e300backed Yes | 62c | 41.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…5117backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…b461backed Yes | 36c | 38.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…9d72backed No | 78c | 33.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…f3c7backed Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 44c | 24.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of January?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of January?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of January?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.